NCAA Tournament 1st Round: U-Mass Dartmouth at Bowdoin Round Table Preview

As we did last week for the NESCAC semifinal between Middelbury and Bowdoin, we invited the opposing schools' student papers to join our Bowdoin writer Benet Pols for a round table preview of tonight's UMass-Dartmouth Crossairs at Bowdoin College Polar Bears NCAA Division-III men's ice hockey tournament game. For the student writers, we have the return of  Luke Lamar, men's hockey correspondent for The Bowdoin Orient, and Mark Ogle, Sports Editor for the Umass-Dartmouth Torch. 

The X Factor in this game is...

A (mostly) packed Sid may be the X Factor

Luke Lamar The X Factor for this game is the setting.  Bowdoin plays well at home and the seniors will love another chance to play in front of the home crowd, but home is where the team had two of its three losses.  Given that it is crazy midterm week the student support may not be as stadium shaking as it was on Sunday.  UMD seems to have played well on the road, with a better winning percentage away than at home, but it will be up to them to keep up that sort of energy in a play-off atmosphere.

Mark Ogle The X-Factor in this game for the UMass Dartmouth Corsairs is Sophomore defenseman Stephen Ginand (D, So).  He deserves as much credit as anybody for the team's wild ride through the post-season.  Ginand scored the game-winning goal in the 2-1 win over Plymouth State in the MASCAC Championship game.  He also scored 2 goals in the team's improbable 5-4 triple-overtime win over Salem State in the semi-finals.  All the while he has played solid defense, making him an indispensable player for the Corsairs.  He has been the catalyst behind the team's last two wins.  If he can continue to play at this high level then the Corsairs have a chance to pull off the upset. 

Benet Pols UMass Dartmouth has done one thing this season that has proved impossible for Bowdoin. The Corsairs beat Wesleyan,5-4, in overtime. The Polar Bears took their first loss of the season to the Cardinals in January dropping an overtime contest at home, 6-5; Bowdoin survived another OT  in February down in Middletown, settling for a 3-3 tie. The only other common opponent was Connecticut College; CC nipped UMD in early January, 3-2, while Bowdoin defeated the Camels twice, once in a 7-1 shellacking, the second time in an overtime contest that sealed first place in NESCAC for Bowdoin and eliminated the Camels from tournament play.

If Bowdoin has an Achilles heel in this contest it’s the perception of over-confidence based on the disparities in conference panache. NESCAC is an established conference that has, on occasion, sent more than one entrant to the 11 team NCAA tournament field. Last year’s entrant, Amherst, made it to the semifinal before being eliminated, and Middlebury has won it all eight times, three of those during NESCAC play.

Meanwhile the MASCAC is just four years old. While UMD has been invited to the NCAA tournament four times (as a member of ECAC-NE), the Corsairs have been eliminated each time by a NESCAC team.

UMD can counter this swagger though. The Corsairs two all conference players— Zach Hepler (Sr. D) and Ryan Williams (Sr, G) are transfers from Plattsburgh State of the mighty, mighty SUNY-AC. If ever a conference basked in its own reflection, it’s the SUNYAC. While Hepler saw limited time in two seasons at Plattsburgh, Williams saw quality time in net his freshman year, winning ten games, losing just two, and tying one while playing 800 minutes. But his time between the pipes tailed off his sophomore year when he got into just five games, going 3-2.

One final X-factor is the mini-goaltender controversy brewing at Bowdoin. After faithfully rotating his two goalies, Junior Steve Messina and Sophomore Max Fenkell all season, Coach Meagher elected to start Fenkell in both games during the NESCAC final weekend. While going with the hot-hand in the playoffs is de rigueur, the revelation that the decision was made by committee has some observers scratching their heads. (for more, here's the audio from coach explaining the decision; and here's a piece by the Portland Press Herald on Meagher's leadership council) 

UMD wins if...

UMD's Ryan Williams will need a strong game to send the Crossairs to Utica

MO: The Corsairs will win this game with good goaltender play. Goalie Ryan Williams has played well as of late and will have to continue that play to help his team.  After a shaky start in the semi-finals versus Salem State, Williams turned things around.  He did give up one goal in the third period, giving his team a 4-1 deficit, but he was on lockdown for the rest of the game.  The Corsairs incredibly scored 3 goals in the second half of the third period to force overtime.  Williams would not allow a goal in any of the three overtimes.  He ended up with a whopping 57 saves on 61 shots.

Williams played even better in the championship at Plymouth State.  He allowed the Panthers to get out to a 1-0 lead, but that is all he would give up.  He tallied 37 saves on 38 shots, a save percentage of .970.  He saved 95% of his shots in those two games and will have to continue his great play.

BP: If its Catenaccio, Italian soccer’s “door-bolt” defensive style, can deny the Polar Bears shots.  And, if its 2nd team all MASCAC goaltender Ryan Williams can stand on his head.

Middlebury kept the Polar Bears under 30 shots last weekend but one-timers and rapid puck movement proved too much for an inexperienced goaltender. The Corsairs Williams, by contrast, has played 21 of UMD’s 26 games this year and has a save percentage of .920. Even so, he can expect to see more than thirty shots Wednesday night.

Bowdoin wins if...

LL: Bowdoin wins if they can win the second period.  Regardless if Bowdoin is ahead or behind at the end of the second frame, the momentum going into the final stanza will be key for the Polar Bears.  Bowdoin does have the capacity to hang on to a lead even if they've played a sub-par second period, but the confidence of putting a full game together will help keep the offense and defense inspired.  As long as the Polar Bears don't have to go too far to either extreme of chasing a large deficit or defending a small margin, they should be able to decide things favorably in the third period.

MO: Bowdoin will win this game if the Corsairs cannot execute early.  They have fallen behind in each of the last two games.  It has made for an entertaining and thrilling journey, but they cannot continue to put themselves in that position, especially against a team like Bowdoin.  To the Corsairs credit, they showed incredible heart to never quit and fight their way back to two victories.  However, if they continue to fall behind early, eventually they will be burned.  The competition is better in this game and they will not be able to get away with early mistakes, so the Corsairs must be on top of their game EARLY.

To win, Bowdoin must work the corners and not the sin bin

BP: As in the NESCAC semi-finals against Middlebury and in the finals against Willimas, they manage to stay out of the box. The Polar Bears survived low scoring affairs by—uncharacteristically--not letting the other team snag an easy marker on the power play.

Because UMD is a low scoring team (76 goals in 25 games) but has thrived by grinding opposing offenses to a halt, Bowdoin can’t let them get a lead to hold. 

The Corsairs winning record includes an astounding nine overtime games, seven of which resulted in ties. One of their overtime wins was a MASCAC playoff game that had to have a winner. But that game, against conference regular season champ Plymouth State, took 41 plus minutes of extra play for a goal to be scored.

Bowdoin will have to throw several combinations of offensive minded lines at the Corsairs who, it appears, rely too heavily on their number one defensive pairing of Hepler and Ginand. The good news for the Polar Bears is that they’re perfectly capable of getting goals out of any of their lines, or re-shuffling them mid-stream if the game requires it.