by Chris Hall
Overall Record (23-3-2) Overall Record (20-5-1)
Away Record (9-1-1) Home Record (13-3-0)
Offense: 4.32 GPG Offense: 4.5 GPG
Defense: 2.5 GAPG Defense: 2.19 GAPG
Power Play: 27.2% Power Play: 18.4%
Penalty Kill: 82.7% Penalty Kill: 85.8%
Bowdoin at Utica promises to be a well-played and hard-fought NCAA Quarterfinal match-up on Saturday night at the Auditorium in Utica. Looking at how close these records and statistics are, it should be a very good match-up. In the high stakes one and done world of the NCAA Tournament, you can throw the records out. Both teams feature potent offenses in a time of year when defense wins championships.
Similarities
The Polar Bears and Pioneers each have rosters full of forwards with good skating ability and some explosive speed. They both have a handful of high-end goal scorers and players who can make plays to win the game. For Bowdoin, keep an eye on #20 John McGinnis and #12 Harry Matheson - they were two impact players from Wednesday night against UMass-Dartmouth. Utica has one of the best young scorers in the country in sophomore #25 Louie Educate (77 points in two seasons) and the Pioneers carry a strong junior class.
Differences
Here is where one team or the other will stand out. Bowdoin has a defensive corps that likes to handle the puck, make plays and skate. They are highly skilled and really make the offense go. Utica, on the other hand, has a big edge in the size department, with every defenseman at least 5-11 and an average size of 6-2, 203 lbs. Another difference is the goaltending situation, as Utica has ridden junior work horse Nick Therrien all season to the tune of an (18-4-1) record, 2.18 Goals Against Average and .924 save percentage. Bowdoin has opted for a tag team approach, splitting time between sophomore Max Fenkell and junior Steve Messina.
Special Teams
The sin bin should be a factor in this game, as both teams are averaging 14 PIMs per game. If the teams stay true to form, advantage goes to Bowdoin, converting on 27.2% of their opportunities and riding an aggressive PK Forecheck to an 82.7% success rate. Utica is no PK slouch either, keeping the puck out of the net 85.8% of the time they go to the box.
X Factors
Three things stick out as potential difference makers in the game. The first is the ice condition. The Utica Auditorium, or "Aud," is being used for New York HS Hockey Championships throughout the day. This tends to lead to a softer, chewed up ice surface. The second factor is the First Round Game Bowdoin played on Wednesday. This one can go either way, as Bowdoin has played a game and already flushed the NCAA tournament jitters from their system. At the same time, Utica was able to rest, heal and prepare all week for one opponent. The third and final X factor is the Aud crowd. Both teams are used to playing in front of large crowds, but the crowd in Utica carries a special mystique about it. There is no doubt they will be on top of their game and will create a playoff atmosphere for what promises to be a great hockey game.
Prediction
I see a (surprisingly to some) low scoring game with goaltending being the difference. Come playoff time, it generally comes down to two things: goaltending and experience. Both teams are skilled, smart and skate well. Both teams have goaltenders capable of stealing the show. If I were a betting man, I would take the under, as I'm going with a 3-2 final score with a good potential for free hockey.
Chris Hall is the Assistant Coach for the Colby College men's hockey team. Prior to joining the Colby staff in 2012-13, Chris worked with the Division I University of Massachusetts and NESCAC conference mate Amherst College hockey teams the previous two seasons. Under Hall's tutelage as a volunteer assistant and goalie coach, Amherst's Jonathon La Rose earned NESCAC Player of the Year and USCHO D-III Player of the Year honors. For more on Chris, see his Colby Athletics Department bio here.
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