NESCAC Semifinal: #5. Middlebury vs #1 Bowdoin Round Table Preview

We'll have a standard preview for tomorrow's Middlebury/Bowdoin NESCAC men's hockey semi-final, but we also wanted to do something a little different. So we invited Owen Teach, men's hockey writer for The Middlebury Campus and Luke Lamar, men's hockey writer for The Bowdoin Orient , to join our Benet Pols, who has ties to both programs, for a round table preview for the game. 5 questions and predictions after the puck drop. Enjoy!

Middlebury and Bowdoin first faced off this season on
11/17/12 at "The Sid," skating to a 4-4 tie 

1. Bowdoin's Achilles Heel is...

Owen Teach, TMC:  I can't say that I've spent much time concerning myself with our rivals to the east, but one potential "achilles heel" is that the Polar Bears appear to be going through a relative slump at this point in the season. They dropped their final regular season game to Trinity by a score of 10-5, an unusually lopsided result for a team that's been on top of the NESCAC all season. Add to that a come-from-behind win against (6-16-3) Hamilton, and I think they might have some concern over getting back into that top-flight team mentality.

Luke Lamar, TBO: Bowdoin's Achilles Heel is not being able to close out a game well.  Throughout the season, Bowdoin has amassed two or three goal leads early in the game only to see them slip away in the third period.  This hasn't always resulted in a loss, but maybe most importantly, it happened against Middlebury in the second game of the year when the Panthers were able to come back from a two-goal deficit and end the game with a 4-4 tie.  Bowdoin plays loose and fast in order to score goals and be creative and its only when they begin to sit back and try and protect a lead instead of trying to build on it that they run into trouble.

Benet Pols: On offense, it’s waiting for the perfect shot. We like our art here in the NESCAC. At Middlebury, the Center for the Arts is named for Kevin P. Mahanney ’84, an outstanding lacrosse goalie. At Colby, their museum is undergoing a $15 million renovation and will be renamed the Alfond Family Pavilion (like everything in Maine). And at Bowdoin, the Walker Art Museum, built in 1894, is the first college art museum built exclusively for the purpose.

Watching John McGinnis (F, So.) thread the needle with a picture perfect pass is indeed a thing of beauty, but not every goal belongs in a museum. The ugly ones count, too. Bowdoin’s swirling offense and heavy use of the ample space in the Sid’s corners and behind the goal often means the only Bowdoin player near the net is the shooter. Not a lot of Bowdoin goals come from rebounds or tip-ins.

On Defense - no question -it’s the penalty box. Bowdoin earned the 2nd most penalty minutes in conference play this year behind Tufts. Including non-conference play, only Trinity players sat more than the Polar Bears. Meanwhile, Bowdoin has just the sixth most efficient penalty kill in NESCAC (though the numbers may be thrown a bit by Bowdoin’s dismal 5 for 6 man-down situation in the season ending 10-5 loss to Trinity). 

2. Middlebury's Achilles Heel is...
Owen Teach, TMC:  As has been discussed at length in the Middlebury Campus this season, the team has not relied heavily on one player to carry the offensive load. This has often worked to the advantage of the Panthers, with a group of five or six players that have stepped up at different times to put forth solid point production. 

However, the downside to that "scoring by committee" equation is that when the team doesn't get production from certain key players it really struggles to put goals in the net. This trend was evident in the team's (2-6-0) slump in December and January, when Middlebury scored only one or two goals in a handful of games. The offensive firepower has been there lately for the Panthers, though, as Louis Belisle '14, Matt Silcoff '16 (NESCAC Rookie of the Year) and a handful of others delivered a win against Amherst last week. If they can get the right guys rolling, it's an entirely different team.

Benet Pols: ...uncertainty between the pipes.  Knowing there’s a hot hand in goal gives the skaters an extra step. Middlebury has done well recently going (7-2-0) since Bowdoin visited the Green Mountains in January. Nonetheless, to an outsider their goal-tending situation remains a mystery. Four different goalies have shared time in the crease. Until their last game against Bowdoin on January 19th, the Panther’s goaltending duties had been handled mainly by Junior Nick BonDurant and Frosh Liam Moorfield-Yee.

Bondurant was in the crease November 17^th for Midd’s come from behind 4-4 tie in Brunswick, while Moorfield Yee took the loss at Middlebury in January, giving up three goals while stopping 22.

Of the Panther’s nine games since then, Sophomore Dan Fullam started the first five, getting wins against CC, Tufts, Wesleyan and Trinity. Fullam started again the following weekend against Williams but took the loss. He was pulled after giving up three goals in 33 minutes. BonDurant finished the game but we haven’t seen either one since.

After an injury to Fullam, sophomore Mike Peters took over. Peters, who to that point had played only about 45 minutes over three games, has played every minute since. Peters is 3-1, including last week’s playoff win at Amherst; but, including garbage time, Peters has played just 287 minutes, or a little less than five complete games. Even so he seems to have the backing of his team.  Owen Teach's recent article quotes Captain Chris Steele ’13 as saying that the confidence in Peters allowed the Panthers to impose their style of play on Amherst. (article) So maybe goaltending is more of a wildcard than an achilles heel for the Panthers. 

3. The X Factor in this game is...

OT: The play of Bowdoin goalies Max Fenkell and Steve Messina. In Middlebury's 3-0 loss against Bowdoin in January, the Panthers outshot the Polar Bears, 38-25, yet were kept off the score sheet. If the Bowdoin keepers can frustrate Middlebury's offense early, it could give the Panthers some trouble. 

On the Middlebury side, it is the play of Louis Belisle. He is the co-leading scorer, along with Matt Silcoff, on the team this year with 23 points, none more important than his two goals in the third period of the win at Amherst. This clutch performance is representative of the type of impact that Belisle can bring to the game. He was switched back to defense earlier in the season by head coach Bill Beaney, and since then has been arguably one of the best scoring defenseman in the NESCAC. 

His incredible speed allows him to find open space through the neutral zone and attack the opposing defense with pace - allowing him to either wreak havoc at the end or open ice for others. He is most dangerous when he collects the puck at the Middlebury blue line and can move unimpeded between the blue lines. If he's able to do that on Saturday, expect a few points from sweet Lou.

LL:  Goaltending.  Goaltending is really the X factor for every game, but it becomes even more important in high pressure situations like the playoffs.  A team that you do not expect to have success can suddenly start winning games if its goalie gets hot.  Bowdoin has been lucky enough to have two great goalies, Max Fenkell and Steve Messina, who each have the ability to turn into brick walls with their different play styles.  The unpredictability of who will play also affects the preparation of the other team because Bowdoin's play does change based on who it puts in front of the net. 

BP: The X-Factor is a subjective psychological boost up or down. Bowdoin Senior Co-Captains Daniel Weiniger & Timothy McGarry remember the bitter taste left by Middlebury the last time the Polar Bears hosted the Panthers in a NESCAC tournament game. Middlebury collected a late power play goal and hung on to win,3-2, to take the NESCAC banner for 2010. Seniors Al Milley and Rob Toczylowski probably remember the go ahead goal too. They were sitting right next to each other watching. From the penalty box.

A lot gets made of Middlebury’s 5-0 NESCAC playoff record against the Polar Bears. It’s easy for fans to remember as four of Midd’s wins have been in the finals. But for the current players, last year’s semi-final elimination by the Panthers down at Amherst’s Orr Rink is a little more fresh. Only Milley, Toczylowski, McGarry and Weiniger saw time back in 2010. The other three play-off losses are ancient history.

But the Polar Bears unloaded a much older Middlebury monkey from their backs in January with Bowdoin’s first win in the Green Mountains since 1993. Back then, Weiniger was probably dressed like Batman and pretending to be the New Jersey Devils Calude Lemieux.

For Middlebury, there is the wildcard of their goaltending; solid recent play by Peters that has earned the trust of his teammates, but a little less than five games worth of career collegiate hockey. 

4. Middlebury wins if... 

OT: 1.  Mike Peters can keep his solid run going and 2. If, along with Belisle and Silcoff, Evan Neugold '16, Derek Pimentel '15 and the two Robbie's (Dobrowski '15 and all-NESCAC second team Donahoe '14) can keep up their recent scoring pace. 

The Panthers have four solid goalies on the roster, which allows the team to select the keeper playing best in practice and gives the team a solid shot to win. Peters has emerged of late and has been the centerpiece of the Panthers (8-3-0) run over its last 11 games. Coach Beaney and multiple players credited Peters with leading the team to a win last Saturday against Amherst with a second period full of impressive and timely saves. 

The players listed after Belisle and Silcoff are the guys who will be needed by the Panthers to contribute to the secondary scoring. Dobrowski and Donahoe both had solid games at Amherst last week, contributing a goal and an assist apiece. I think if Middlebury can get primary scoring from its big guns, as well as a few points from the other scoring threats and a solid game out of Peters, they have a great shot at winning in Bowdoin. The team is playing much better than its (13-10-2) record would suggest and is arguably one of the hottest teams in the conference.

BP: ...the Panthers interrupt Bowdoin’s circling use of corners and keep Bowdoin’s shot total low. If the Panthers play the same sort of game Hamilton did, they have the skill and firepower to stay on top. Bowdoin’s set play style is not built for the desperation comeback.

5. Bowdoin wins if...

OT:  If the Polar Bears can play like the team that didn't lose any games in November and December, there is no doubt that Bowdoin is a force to be reckoned with. However, as I touched on before, I don't think they are playing quite like that team anymore. The 10-5 loss against Trinity must have been a wake-up call, while Hamilton gave them more trouble than expected. Hopefully Middlebury can take it to them.

LL: The Polar Bears can keep up their spicy-szechuan style of play that can be disrupting to more traditional style teams.  With good goaltending and continued creativity and fire from the front, Bowdoin should have a good chance of moving on to the final.

BP: Coach Meagher's squad gets its offense uncorked early and imposes its controlling Bowdoin’s style of play. If Ollie Koo plays forward and finds his groove the entire offense will have the room it needs to build a lead. Goaltending is a question for Middlebury, Bowdoin should score early to emphasize that fact. And again, the Polar Bears need to stay out of the box.

PREDICTIONS

OT: 5-4 Middlebury in OT.

LL: 4-3 Bowdoin 

BP: The game will last at least 60 minutes and the team that scores most often will win.

Additional Reading
Owen Teach has a Q&A about this weekend with The Bowdoin Orient's sports editor Ron Cervantes
Luke Lamar Chronicles Bowdoin's come from behind Quarterfinal win to get them to this weekend
Owen Teach covers Middlebury's victory over Amherst that sent them to Brunswick for the semis
Benet Pols handicaps the NESCAC's chances at getting a second team in the NCAA Tourney