Monday, October 28, 2013

D3Hockey.com Faceoff '13: preseason poll, rankings, Keith Buehler interview and former Trinity defenseman's "Player's Perspective"

Another sign we're getting closer to the season: D3Hockey.com has released their preseason poll, rankings and "Faceoff 13" series of articles, which includes an interview with 2013 First Team All-NESCAC forward Keith Buehler from Wesleyan. They also have previews for the eight other D-III men's hockey conferences, but not the NESCAC yet, presumably because team activities don't officially start until Friday, when other teams start their game schedule. You know, because starting with the rest of the country a few weeks earlier would go against the 'Cac's mission statement of putting academics first, somehow.

Preseason Poll 
The NESCAC makes two appearances on the preseason  Top 15 poll, voted on by a panel of 20 coaches, Sports Information Directors and media members from across the country. Defending 'Cac champion Bowdoin comes in at number 7, receiving 1 first place vote and 165 points overall.  Eight time national champion (last in 2006) Middlebury squeaks in to the top 15 at number 15. 

D3hockey.com Men's Top 15: Preseason

#School (1st votes)RecPtsPrev.
1St. Norbert (5)0-0261
2Plattsburgh State (5)0-0246
3Utica (2)0-0244
4UW-Eau Claire (4)0-0240
5Norwich (2)0-0213
6Adrian0-0178
7Bowdoin (1)0-0165
8Oswego State (1)0-0160
9Mass-Boston0-0115
10Neumann0-1104
11Hobart0-097
12Babson0-076
13UW-Stevens Point0-064
14St. John's0-056
15Middlebury0-0
46
Western Massachusetts rivals Williams (42 points) and Amherst (15 points) also received votes, but did not crack the top 15. 

Preseason Rankings
Also for the first time this year - as computers move ever closer to being self-aware - D3H has tried to predict the finish of all 79 teams in DII/III using a computer model. The 5 criteria for the rankings are as follows: 
1. Winning percentage (WP)
2. Enhanced winning percentage (EWP)
3. Opponents winning percentage (OWP)
4. Opponents’ Opponents winning percentage (OOWP)
5. Opponents’ Opponents’ Opponents  winning percentage (OOOWP)








Clearly any model that tries to predict performance before a team has ever played a game together will have flaws, and D3H admits as much. They tried to use the previous year's output, subtracting the contributions of outgoing seniors and projecting mathematically the input of incoming freshman, using their list of recruits as a basis. You can read about their methodology here. Limitations aside, it is still a fun exercise. The NESCAC teams rank as follows:

3. Williams
8. Middlebury
10. Trinity
12. Bowdoin
19. Amherst
32. Wesleyan
36. Conn College
49. Colby
51. Tufts
56. Hamilton 

The first thing you may notice - besides the ratings bias against lighter color blue schools- is that the voters like Bowdoin best but the computers have a thing for purple cows. Williams has a very tough out-of-conference schedule with games against Babson (11), Hobart (16), Plattsburgh (2) (potentially twice, if they meet in the Cardinal Classic Final) and Manhattanville (24). By contrast, Bowdoin's toughest out-of-conference opponent (according to these rankings) is interstate rival  University of New England (44).
Buehler Interview
Wesleyan senior captain Keith Buehler answered some questions for D3H about choosing to play D-III hockey, not getting as much attention as other top scorers around the nation last season, his goals for the season and more. You can find the full interview here

Player's Perspective
Peter Langella, a former Trinity/Norwich player, writes a column for D3H entitled, "A Player's Perspective". In his first installment for 2013-14, Langella bemoans the "attrition" on rosters that come from bringing in a crop of, say, 14 recruits when there were only 5 graduating seniors. This necessitates cuts of some returning players, something Langella  calls "just plain wrong." 

The former Bantam and Cadet, who had 49 points (4-9-49) in 84 games as a D-III athlete, points out that most players go to their specific school to play hockey. Using some NESCAC schools as examples, he says, "You’re not going to temp fate at the non-existent-we-only-hold-them-because-it’s-school-policy-walk-on-try-out at Bowdoin if the Colby coach has your name written in pen on the roster." 

So Langella balks at a player getting cut, not for academic or disciplinary reasons, but simply because the coach thinks it will help the team win. "Is winning that important?" he posits, "I say no."

The second half of his column discusses the time pressure of being a student-athlete. He starts with an anecdote about a teacher at Trinity that told him he needed to do three hours of reading for every hour in class.

Langella admits that he didn't spend that much time on class prep, but says that no matter what you need to spend a considerable amount of time on classwork to "make the grade." Add to that the hours of practice, team meetings, games, game travel, work-study, other extra-curricular activities and you are left with very little free time.

In his other column for the rollout, "351", he continues the trend of drumming up some respect for D-III hockey players calling them "elite athletes." Echoing part of  our "NCAA D-1 NCAA Tournament: Six Degrees of 'Cac Separation" article from last March, Langella points out that there are only 138 hockey programs in ALL of NCAA hockey, compared to 351 basketball programs in just division I. As he puts it: 
"That means that the worst player on the worst team in the worst league on that list, who almost certainly won't even get a chance to play for the worst D3 hockey team, would be an NCAA Division 1 basketball player."
Spot on, Mr. Langella. For those of you wondering, Langella only played one year at Trinity in 2002-03, when the second seeded Bantams won their first of two NESCAC championships (the other in 08) by beating first seeded Middlebury 4-2. Langella missed playing with current Trinity coach Matt Greason ('02) by one season.

Langella's '03 Bantams team would lose to eventual national champion and Middlebury rival Norwich in the NCAA quarterfinals. The Vermont native would return to his home state of Vermont, playing for Norwich from 2004-2007. Unfortunately for him, the only NCAA championship the Cadets won during his collegiate tenure was his freshman year at Trinity.

Read More: D3Hockey.com - - Faceoff '13








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