NCAA D-III Men's Hockey Tournament: Bowdoin at Oswego Round Table

The Bowdoin seniors have won three NESCAC title games, but they
lost to Oswego in the NCAA tournament in their freshman year. 

After winning the NESCAC tournament as the conference's fifth seed, the Bowdoin Polar Bears (17-8-2) travel to upstate New York Wednesday night (7 PM) to face the SUNY-AC champion Oswego Lakers (20-6-2) in an NCAA D-III men's hockey tournament first round game.

We invited Ray Biggs, Rob Kennedy, and Andrew Pugilese to help us preview the third NCAA tournament match-up in five years (Oswego won 7-5 and 9-2 in 2010,11 Quarterfinals) between these two schools. Biggs is the voice of Utica College men's hockey and host of "The Stampede", a sports talk radio show covering D-III hockey on Utica's WPNR-FM 90.7. NESCAC fans know Kennedy as the voice of Bowdoin  hockey on Northeast Sports Network and Pugilese is the assistant sports editor/men's hockey beat writer for The Oswegonian, SUNY Oswego's student-run newspaper.

Thanks to all our panelists for their contribution. If you want to chime in, you can find them on twitter: Ray Biggs (@feathermoose44), Rob Kennedy ( @RobKennedy70) and Andrew Pugliese (@PuGonian) from @OswegonianSport. 

The X-Factor in this game...
Ray Biggs: ...Special Teams. Oswego has a great power play. Bowdoin does as well, but both teams are average penalty killing squad. Whichever team is more efficient on special teams overall will likely be the victor. 

Rob Kennedy: ...Fatigue. Bowdoin has been on the road for two weeks now. They went to Middlebury for the NESCAC Quarterfinals two weekends ago, and then Connecticut this past weekend for the NESCAC Championships. They left Tuesday for Oswego after about 36 hours in Brunswick. That's a lot of travel; it's quite a grind for players who aren't used to that kind of schedule. However, the Bears have been finding ways to win these road games that very few thought they'd win--the Trinity game especially. They're confident, but how much can mind over matter win out, especially if this is a physical, fast paced contest? At some point, I wonder if the run of games catches up with them. It sure won't help against a talented team like Oswego. 

Andrw Pugilese: Oswego State senior forward, captain David Titanic: Throughout the SUNYAC Championships, Oswego struggled on the penalty kill, allowing six power play goals on 13 opportunities. In each game, the power play goals allowed shifted the momentum of the contest. Bowdoin touts an offense and power play that are both ranked in the top 15 nationally. The Lakers will need their senior captain, known for his grit, hard work and skill in the defensive zone, to step up when the Polar Bears go on the attack. Titanic’s play during the Lakers final penalty kill of Saturday’s game at Geneseo, including two key blocked shots, set the tone for a successful two minutes down a skater. The Lakers thwarted the Knights power play and went on to score the game-winner on a power play of its own just minutes later. His effort and leadership during the team’s short handed play, and throughout the game as a whole, may very well be the difference between his career at Oswego State continuing or ending on Wednesday night.


Bowdoin wins if....

RB: They can do four things:
 1. Use their speed to get on the majority of 50/50 pucks. The NHL Size sheet favors a larger Oswego team that can possess the puck on the walls all day long. If they can do it against Utica, they can do it against Bowdoin, too. 

2. Capitalize on their transition opportunities and test the still young Oswego goaltenders in one on one situations.

3. Sacrifice bodies on the PK to protect goalie Max Fenkell. Oswego is a team that loves to walk in their points on the 1-3-1 power play and bomb one-timers from the circles. The Polar Bears may be best served to pack inside and let Oswego do its thing from the perimeter. If they don't get caught chasing the puck at a bad time, they should be ok.
4. Do their damage in the first 40 minutes. Oswego has just two wins this year when trailing at the end of two.

RK: Bowdoin does three things. The first is that they need to have not just solid, but stellar goaltending. The Bears netminding situation has been so strange this year. Each guy seemed to get the "top dog" position and then play his way out of it. Steve Messina seemingly had the  #1 position sewn up until he was in net for the Bears regular-season finale loss at Tufts, a defeat that cost them home ice in the first round of the playoffs. So when the playoffs started against Middlebury, Max Fenkell got his first start since losing his bid to be the regular starter after a poor performance at Amherst on Feb 8. Fenkell played well enough in the win to earn the nod against Trinity and Amherst and he was very strong, especially in the 2nd period against the Lord Jeffs in which the Bears were pinned in their own zone for long periods at a time. If he continues to play at that level, they can win the game.

Second, Bowdoin obviously has to stay out of the box. Oswego had the best PP in the SUNYAC and the 4th best in the nation, and Matt Galati is an assassin when his team is up a man. The Bears are very good killing penalties, and held the nation's best PP (Trinity) to 1 for 6 on Saturday. And the Bears can score shorthanded: their 12 shorthanded goals far and away lead the nation. Connor Quinn and Colin Downey are both very aggressive. They are not afraid to pressure a team's PP unit and aggressively forecheck as they're fast enough to get back in the play even after attacking deep in the offensive zone. But obviously, even as venemous as they are shorthanded, anyone lives dangerously by letting Oswego play with an extra skater.  

Third, Meagher's men need secondary scoring.  Bowdoin spent so much of the year depending on Downey, Quinn, Matt Rubinoff and John McGinnis for so much of their goal output. Since mid-January, it seems like there's a new guy scoring big goals every night--at least in games they win. Harry Matheson's scoring has been down this year: he scored a big goal against Trinity and had 2 assists against Middlebury. Kyle Lockwood's battled nagging injuries all year: he seems to be coming into form at the right time--he has 4 goals in his last 5 games. Mitch Barrington hit an OT winner in late January against Middlebury, Danny Palumbo opened the scoring Sunday against Amherst. I think that's what they'll need to beat Oswego is a couple of goals from guys who haven't been the go-to offensive sources. 

AP: They win the physical battle. Oswego State is a strong passing team and its play on the forecheck, especially by Morgan Bonner, Chris Waterstreet and Josh Timpano, does well to open up passing lanes. The Polar Bears will need to out muscle the Laker enforcers, and disrupt the flow of their offense, in order to create turnovers in the defensive and neutral zone. A maximum number of turnovers will be needed for Bowdoin, who was outshot in each of its conference tournament games against Trinity College and Amherst College. The more shots on freshman Matt Zawadzki’s net, the more chances to score and the chances of victory increase.

 Oswego wins if...

RB:  They can do three things:

1. They make smart breakout decisions. Terry Meagher's bunch  is more than capable of making his opposition cough up the puck in their own end. 
2. The transition game is clicking. Like their predecessors, this Oswego team continues to see the ice well and make smart decisions on the rush to manufacture multiple chances each game. As a guy who has seen the Lakers play three times this season, it seems like other than some early consistency problems and the names on the jerseys, very little has changed for Oswego.
3. They can finish their checks cleanly. They come into Wednesday's game as the significantly larger team, and they specialize in taking their opponents out of the play without racking up a ton of minutes in the box. 

RK: Bowdoin has trouble getting the puck out of their own end as they did at times this year, the Lakers seem to have the talent to really punish Bowdoin. Bowdoin's had turnover issues for long stretches of games in the regular season; those seemed to improve as we headed into February, but they have room for a relapse against a team as offensively capable as Oswego. The Bears depend a great deal on freshmen on their blueline, and their kids will have to continue to deal well with the pressure as they head to Oswego. 

AP: They are  able to get players to the net throughout the game. Over the past month, the Lakers have done very well moving the puck around in the offensive zone under all circumstances. Their shortcoming has been getting players to the net to pick up rebounds and loose pucks. Oswego State has won five of seven games during this span, its two losses coming at the beginning of the stretch to SUNY Geneseo and The College at Brockport. The Lakers won the shots on goal battle in both contests, but their inability to take advantage of chances around the net led to just four goals on 84 shots during the two games. The Knights and Golden Eagles were able to clear Oswego State out of the crease and take some of the pressure off of their goalies.

Player to watch from Bowdoin 

RB: Colin Downey. Downey has had a career season for a Bowdoin team that took a slightly more scenic route to NCAAs than they have in years past. Without Ollie Koo, Downey has shown he can carry the load and will have to make the most of his ice time on Wednesday night. 

RK: The Bowdoin youth. Let's stay away from the usual suspects like Quinn, Downey, McGinnis, etc. I'll put Matt Rubinoff on the list of players to watch, because he's been such a catalyst for the team when he's out there: he compliments whoever he skates with extremely well. Matt Sullivan's a similar type of guy who brings a lot of energy but hasn't seen that pay off on the score sheet, but he's another guy who gives the Bears very good minutes from a 3rd line position. But overall, I think it's the defensemen that we'll have to put the spotlight on, especially Jay Kourkoulis, who besides taking some untimely penalties looked very good this weekend, Ryan Collier, Joe Lace and Brendan Conroy--all of whom surround captain Jay Livermore and make opponents battle for scoring opportunities, especially when they're good with the puck.

Player to watch from Oswego 

RB: Mike Montagna. The transfer from Vermont always seems to be in position when an opposing netminder makes a mistake. He's great at cleaning up rebounds in front and protects the puck extremely well.

AP:    Alex Botten  Freshman forward Alex Botten: The SUNYAC Championships’ Most Valuable Player, Botten’s conference-record tying five assists in the finals on Saturday epitomized his importance to the Lakers offense. On a team filled with goal scorers, from Matt Galati to Brandon Adams, they all need some one who can set them up and be a playmaker. For Ed Gosek’s team, that player is Botten. His 13 points in conference play were good enough for fourth among freshmen and his total of 24 assists, in all games, is currently tied for sixth in the nation. Botten’s ability to find his teammates, while staying a threat to score himself (with eight goals on the season), makes him a player any opponent needs to plan for.

Predictions 
RB: While this is by far the most competitive of the three opening round matchups, I can't see a red hot Oswego State team screeching to a halt just yet, especially not after a rousing win against Geneseo. Bowdoin, who has heated up significantly in the NESCAC Playoffs, will put up their best showing in three recent NCAA meetings with the Lakers, but will fall short. Oswego cans 2 powerplay goals and it makes the difference, 5-3 Oswego. 

RK:  I didn't expect Bowdoin to beat Trinity, and I had a bad feeling about Amherst as well, since the Bears have just been so inconsistent this year. They have everything against them tonight: long travel, fatigue, and perhaps the best opponent they've seen all year. They don't tend to do very well at Oswego, to say the least: they were brutalized 9-2 in 2010 and lost 7-5 in 2011. It wouldn't surprise me to see Bowdoin find a way to win this game, because that's what they've done over the past three, but I think I'll go with my head over my heart and say 5-3 Oswego .

AP: 4-3 Oswego.