Saturday, March 8, 2014

NESCAC Seminfals: #3 Williams vs #2 Amherst 1PM Saturday 3/8/14

Who: #3. Williams College Ephs (15-7-3; 10-5-3) vs #2. Amherst College Lord Jeffs (15-7-3; 12-4-2)
WhereKoeppel Center  Hartford CT
When1 PM Saturday 3/8/14
Video/Audio: NSN NESCAC Championship Weekend Coverage 
Previews: Amherst Preview   Williams Preview 

Regular Season Stats 


Overall  (Conference Rank)             Conference Games (conf. rank)
Offense: 2.67 G/GM (7th)                                 Offense: 2.44 G/GM (8th)
Defense: 1.92 G/GM (1st)                                Defense: 1.83 G/GM (1st)
Power Play:  20/103-19.4% (6th)                      Power Play: 14/72 -19.4% (4th) 
Penalty Kill: 70/82  - 85.4% (3rd)                     Penalty Kill: 59/67 - 88.1% (2nd)







Overall  (Conference Rank)             Conference Games (conf. rank)
Offense: 2.96 G/GM (5th)                                 Offense: 3.17 G/GM (4th)
Defense: 2.17 G/GM (2nd)                                Defense: 1.94 G/GM (2nd)
Power Play: 19/107 -17.8% (7th)                       Power Play: 12/77 - 15.6% (7th) 
Penalty Kill: 121/139 - 87.1% (2nd)                    Penalty Kill: 99/110 - 90% (1st)




The Lowdown 
In football, this game is known as the The Biggest Little Game in America. In the pages of US News and Word Report, it's the battle for the top spot in the Liberal Arts College Rankings. In history, it's the battle over the rumored Great Book Theft That Wasn't  , the harmless but fallacious rumor that former Williams president  Zephaniah Swift Moore stole books from the Williams library when he absconded from Williamstown to found Amherst.

On ice, it's the battle between the two best defenses in the NESCAC with a berth into the 2014 NESCAC championship game on the line. The bitter rivals have faced off 127 times in hockey with the Ephs holding  a sizeable 89-35-3 lead in the series. This season the Ephs and Lord Jeffs split the regular season series with teach team winning on the other's home ice. 

Williams/Amherst has occurred three times in the postseason with Amherst holding the 2-1 edge (though one of those wins was in the ECAC, not NESCAC playofs). The teams last met in the 2012 NESCAC semis at Orr Rink with the top seeded Lord Jeffs beating the Ephs 2-1 en route to a NESCAC title and D-III Frozen Four appearance. Current Jeff, Andrew Fenwick (F, '15), one of two Fenwicks in Hartford this weekend, scored one of the two Amherst goals in that semi matchup. 

Heading into last weekend's Quarterfinals, the teams were headed in different directions. Amherst had gone 5-1-2 down the stretch - including a win over Williams in the regular season finale - while the Ephs went 2-4-1 in the same span. Coach Bill Kangas' team had particular trouble in the offensive zone, scoring only seven goals in their final four games. In the final eight games, they had only three goals combined from their two leading goal scorers, Craig Kitto (f, '15) and George Hunkele (F, '17). 

The Ephs matched their total from the previous four games in one fell swoop against Colby in the Quarters, defeating the Mules 7-3. Kitto didn't score but Hunkele did and the Ephs got plenty of secondary scoring to earn their ticket to Hartford. The Lord Jeffs outlasted a resurgent Conn College Camels team, 4-2, to setup the rivalry matchup this weekend. 

On the USCHO Fan forum, posters were not impressed with Williams win over Colby. Of the eight prognosticating posters, seven of them picked the Jeffs. 

Keys to the game
I'll say goaltending and you'll say No sh*# Sherlock. Given that it is the playoffs and that the goalies involved are recent First (Dougherty) and Second ( Dave Cunningham) Team All-NESCAC, it's a pretty obvious choice. It also has the added benefit of being true as a strong game out of either of these netminders could be make all other factors (solid fore-checking, special teams, shot selection, etc.) a moot point.

Shots on goal can can be a deceptive statistic (if only they had a quality shots on goal stat), but the Lord Jeffs have a pretty clear disparity in overall record when it comes to shots. Amherst is 8-1-2 when outshooting opponents but only 7-6-1 when being outshot. Last weekend against Conn College, coach Jack Arena seemed to have a game plan of getting a plethora shots on net, even if they were from the outside, and it paid off as Elliot Bostrom (D, '14) tied the game in the third with a shot from the blueline.

It will be harder to get shots on net from the outside against a disciplined Williams defense, but the Lord Jeffs will need to try to test Dougherty early and often. The shot effect is not as pronounced for Williams as they are 10-5-3 when outshooting opponents  and 4-2 when they are outshot.

Players to watch (besides the goalies)
Craig Kitto (F, '15) Kitto still  leads the Ephs in goal scoring, but he only has one goal in the last nine games. The Ashburn, VA native had an injury plagued 2012-13 but still made his presence felt in last year's playoffs with three points (2-1-3) in three games.

Elliot Bostrom (D, '14) The McLean, VA native usually anchors the blue lien and leaves the scoring to other book stealers, but Bostrom has scored in each of the last two games, including the regular season finale against the Ephs.

No matter what happens today, the Western, MA rivalry and book theft legends won't stop after this game. so, we present Bad Books' "It Never Stops"







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