Trinity Overhauls its Out-of-Conference Schedule

“I don’t see how they can not take us. We’ve been ranked first for weeks.”

Fateful words about the NCAA DIII hockey tournament spoken by a Trinity College administrator on quiet Sunday afternoon in Hartford last March.

As computer cords were wound up and cameras packed away in the media center, the only remaining noise in the Koeppel Center rink in Hartford was an animated hum from one corner of the rink where Bowdoin parents gathered to talk travel plans while waiting for players to emerge from the dressing rooms.  A more subdued group of Amherst parents were nearby.

Most agreed with the folks from Trinity; the Bantams would play again.

A small contingent of Amherst students traveled to Trinity's
Koeppel Center for the March 2014 NESCAC final with
Bowdoin.

It’d been a weird day for the hosts from Trinity. Plenty of athletic department staff were on hand, along with NESCAC conference staff; as hosts, they had to assure that the championship game went off as planned even if the Bantams themselves weren’t playing. The crowd, to the extent there was one, had consisted of a tight student group of maybe 150 from Amherst who’d made the short ride down I-91, and family members of the players. In something of an upset the day before the 5^th seeded Bowdoin Polar Bears had upended Trinity 5-4 for the right to face Amherst for the 2014 NESCAC Championship and its automatic qualifier for the NCAA tournament (AQ); the Polar Bears took it in a grueling double overtime battle.

Even so Trinity looked in good shape for an at-large bid. After all, they still held a 21-5 record; the Bantams had been ranked 1^st in the NCAA regional rankings, used to determine at-large selections and seeding for the 11 member NCAA DIII men’s ice hockey tournament field, just days earlier. In fact the Bantams, with their high-octane offense leading the nation, had been consistently ranked 1^st in the east throughout the three week rankings period.

Really the only real question for Trinity seemed to be whether the Bantams would host a preliminary game or whether they’d be punished for their semi-final loss and forced to travel.

Wrong. The Bantams were left out. In what may have been the most glaring object lesson yet in out-of-conference scheduling Trinity was jilted.

Jilted. No one thought this was the last goal Trinity would
score for the 2013-14 season.

Eleven teams make the field. Eight of the eleven spots go to conference tournament champions, while the remaining three go to at-large selections. After the eleven teams are seeded, the top five receive first round-byes, the remaining six play mid-week preliminary games hosted by the higher seeded team; the three victors advance to the quarter-finals with the five teams that had received byes.

Trinity has plainly taken the lesson to heart for this season; the Bantams have upgraded their OOC schedule dramatically. One of the weakest in NESCAC has become one of the toughest.

We have written about strength of out-of-conference schedule a lot. Casual fans often expect more than one NESCAC team to make the NCAA field, particularly in years when more than one team from the conference performs well in the media polls. As the 2012-13 playoffs approached we broke down NCAA playoff scenarios for the top-ranked NESAC teams. Last season we looked at the historical basis for some out of conference scheduling and took a look at the relationships that impact other out of conference scheduling.  We also broke down each NESCAC team’s out of conference schedule and forecasted what it meant for each team’s NCAA hopes. We concluded Trinity’s 2013-14 OOC schedule was one of the weakest.

Ominously we also forecast Trinity’s 2014 NCAA playoff conundrum when our publisher wrote: “The most interesting scenario might be if Trinity loses in the semis. While 2013 NESCAC Coach of the Year Matt Greason's team has a good shot at grabbing one of the three at-large bids to the NCAA tournament should they lose in the finals, it's impossible to say at this point what their chances are should they lose to the Polar Bears in the semis.”

Is there an inherent NCAA bias against NESCAC? In 2014 Norwich, like Trinity, led its conference most of season. The Cadets also failed to win their conference tournament losing 2-1 to the Babson Beavers. Yet Norwich not only received an at-large bid but were granted hosting rights for the first round where the Cadets thrashed MASCAC winner Salem Sate, 8-2, before bowing out in a tight quarterfinal to Geneseo.

A couple of things distinguish Norwich from Trinity though. Trinity lost in a semi-final to 5^th seed Bowdoin, but the Cadets lost in the conference championship game to Babson, a team that had ended the season with the exact same record but yielded hosting rights to Norwich only on tiebreakers. Second, Norwich’s OOC schedule was inarguably stronger than Trinity’s.

Trinity makes changes.

Trinity, and travel partner Wesleyan, have their NESCAC bye-weekend in December. As a result the Bantams and Cardinals play their entire out-of-conference schedule in six consecutive games. The rest of the conference tends to intersperse OOC schedule over eight weeks or so with mid-week games with regional rivals and holiday tournaments.

Trinity starts the OOC schedule at home with a double dose of UMass. On November 29^th they face the Corsairs of UMass Dartmouth and the following day face-off against the Beacons of UMass Boston.

UMass Dartmouth had a tough 2013-14. The Corsairs went from first to worst to finish the season in the cellar of the MASCAC; just a year earlier, backed by phenomenal goaltending, they’d won the conference title and secured its NCAA AQ before losing in the first round at Bowdoin. UMass Dartmouth is coached by John Rolli, one of just a handful of college coaches in the elite 500 win club. Coming into this season Rolli’s career record was 557-175-34 (.749). Only Middlebury’s Bill Beaney and Norwich’s Mike McShane have more DIII wins.

The Corsairs may be competitive within their conference this season, sporting a 1-1-2 record against MASCAC members so far; however they suffered a season opening 15-3 drubbing at the hands of ECAC-E perennial contender, UMass Boston.

UMass Boston, Trinity’s second OOC opponent finished third in the well-respected ECAC-E last season (17-6-4 overall). Only Norwich and Babson, both NCAA tournament teams, bested the Beacons. In 2012-13 the Beacons finished second and have been in the conference leader conversation for several years. As of November 24th the Beacons are ranked 10th in the USCHO, DIII poll and 11th in the D3Hockey poll; Trinity is 8th in both.

In what could be the Bantam’s toughest road trip of the season Trinity travels to upstate New York for December 5^th and 6^th match-ups with the Utica College Pioneers and the Hobart Statesmen.

Utica, also featured regularly in the NCAA regional rankings last season, ended the season 6^th in the east. The Pioneers ended the 2013-14 campaign at 16-7-4 and lost in the first round of the ECAC-W tournament.  A season earlier they’d finished 21-6-1 and bowed out as NCAA semi-finalist after eliminating Bowdoin 3-2 in a quarterfinal.

The Aud is often full. WIth a capacity of 3800 this say
a lot about the Utica Pioneers' following.

Off to an uncharacteristically bad start this year at 1-4-2 overall, 0-4-1 in conference, Utica’s only bright spot so far this season has been a 4-4 tie with upstate rival Oswego. The game was played before a huge audience in Syracuse University’s Carrier Dome. Before seeing Trinity, Utica will also take on NESCAC members Hamilton and Connecticut College.

Hobart finished last 2013-14 at 14-9-4. In 2012-13, they ended the season 1^st in the ECAC-W at 19-5-2.  They currently lead the ECAC-W at 4-2.

The ECAC-W is an unusual conference. Always competitive, it has frequently sent members to the NCAA, with Neumann winning it all in 2009. Unlike most conferences the ECAC-W does not get an automatic qualifier. NCAA rules require a conference to have seven members before it can benefit from an automatic qualifier; the ECAC-W has just six members. In order for an ECAC-W team to make the tournament field an at-large bid is required.

Utica boasts a very strong local fan base and frequently fills the 3800 capacity Utica Auditorium. Home to the minor league Comets, the “Aud” fits in ice hockey lore in several ways. Parts of “Slapshot” were filmed in the Aud, it’s a civil engineering landmark, and was recently noted as one of ten architecturally significant ice arenas worldwide.

Less glamorously, the Aud is reputed to have a terrible ice-surface. But you can only read about the ice in fan forums; reportedly the ice is only really troublesome during muggy March. Before Bowdoin faced Utica in the 2013 NCAA quarterfinal we gave the conference our usual thorough review.

After the Christmas break Trinity will close its OOC season against MASCAC members Plymouth State and Westfield State. Plymouth State was last season’s MASCAC regular season winner but blew its chances for the conference’s NCAA AQ by losing the final to Salem State.
The Panthers from Plymouth State are again in familiar territory atop the MASCAC standings again this season; they currently lead the league at 3-0-1 (3-2-1, overall). They’ve finished the regular season 1^st in the league three seasons in a row, but have won the conference tournament, and thus taken the NCAA AQ, just once during that span.

More than just an ice rink, the Aud is a civil engineering
landmark and was immortalized on the silver screen
 in "Slapshot."

Westfield State, 3-1 in the MASCAC , 5-2 overall, is second in the conference now but seems to present the least challenge for Trinity, In recent years they’ve been at best middle of the pack in MASCAC.

Without doubt, Trinity has upgraded its OOC schedule. Gone are four teams from the lightly regarded ECAC-NE which had 60 losses among them last season. Also gone is the anomalous match-up with DII Stonehill. The new competition features three teams--Hobart, Utica, and UMass Boston--from the well-regarded ECAC-W and ECAC-E, along with two teams that frequently compete for the top spot in the MASCAC.

Even so, games still need to be won.

--Benet Pols