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| Will this year's finals be a rematch of last year's semis? |
#3 Connecticut College vs #4 Williams College 1PM
Semifinal Subplot: Program History
Conn College is in uncharted territory, reaching the semifinals for the first time in history. After hosting a NESCAC Quarterfinal game for the first time ever last weekend, the Camels head to Amherst to take on the Ephs at 1pm. Will the nerves and pressure of a semifinal game affect the charges of Coach Jim Ward or will they play carefree and loose – sticking to the style that has brought them this far?
For the Williams Hockey Class of 2015, this is their fourth consecutive trip to the NESCAC Final Four, and the programs fifth straight appearance. The previous four trips have seen them come up short – still lacking that elusive first NESCAC Playoff Championship. The good news? The path to a championship free of previous speed bumps. They didn’t draw Amherst in the semi’s (two straight SF losses to the Jeffs) and the Polar Bears of Bowdoin had their season end last weekend (two straight NESCAC Final losses to the team from Brunswick). Will the Ephs rally around their seniors and help Coach Bill Kangas win the first NESCAC Championship in program history?
What Should Happen:
A fast paced and zone to zone game. Both teams like to possess the puck and play in the offensive zone. When they have the puck, look for both Williams and Conn College to change the point of attack – moving the puck down to the goal line and then east to west behind the net. They will also use their defensemen liberally, going to the points, changing sides and activating the weak side defenseman in the offensive zone. Special teams always have a role, and it should be a good matchup between Williams PP at 25.3% and Conn’s PK at 81.9%.
Who Has the Edge:
Looking inside the numbers, Conn College is a whopping 7-3 in game decided by 3 or more goals while Williams stands at 7-2 in one goal games. Advantage? Well it depends. The deeper into the playoffs you get, the tighter the games. If Conn can open the floodgates, look for the Camels to advance to their first NESCAC Final. If it’s tight, I’ll take the experience of the Ephs.
Bottom Line:
A tightly contested contest between two programs with a lot to prove. Both teams rely upon their
upperclassmen to play major minutes and contribute in both ends. Both teams have good numbers and success with their starting goaltender. Both teams played a tight OT game last Saturday. At the end of the day, I think Sean Dougherty makes one more save than Tom Conlin and the Ephs prevail in OT.
HITC Editor Note: We like the Ephs as well to take this game in a tight one, 3-2.
#8 Tufts University at #2 Amherst College
Semifinal Subplot: The New Kids on the Block vs The Old Guard; Unlikely Goaltender Showdown
Amherst has hosted two out of the last four NESCAC Final Four weekends. Tufts is playing in the NESCAC Semifinals for the first time in program history. Amherst is playing a true home game, Tufts is playing a true road game. Tufts knocked off the #1 team in the conference and the #1 team on the East Coast last weekend in a 2-1 nail biter. Amherst was outplayed for stretches but held the fort in a 3-0 win over Middlebury. Tufts hasn’t beaten Amherst since Feb 11, 2005, including a record of 0-6-1 in Orr Rink over that time.
The main storyline? The matchup in the crease, possibly the most improbable in conference history.
Danny Vitale of Amherst vs Mason Pulde of Tufts. A career backup for the Jeffs, Danny stepped up to the plate this season when regular starter David Cunningham was injured and he never looked back. Leading the conference in save percentage (.942%) and goals against average (1.73), Vitale is putting up numbers that Coach Arena hasn’t seen since Jonathan LaRose was NCAA DIII Player of the Year in 2011. Meanwhile, Mason Pulde transferred from Middlebury, VT to Malden, MA over the summer and all he’s done is start almost every meaningful game for the Jumbos. A .914 save percentage to go along with a 3.01 goals against average and 7 wins. Pulde was buried on the depth chart last season and now he’s playing for a chance to lead the #8 seed Jumbos to a NESCAC Final.
What Should Happen:
Look for a hotly contested, physical contest between two strong and heavy teams: finished checks,
scrums and gritty play all over the ice. Both teams have defenseman that like to get up and activate in the offense, including All-NESCAC Selections Jake Turrin (Amherst) and Blake Edwards (Tufts). These are two teams that are aggressive on the forecheck and have the ability to hem their opponents in. Finally, this game should be a showdown between the two masked men. The last two games in Amherst between these two teams have been close, a 3-2 Amherst win this year and a 1-1 tie last season.
Who Has the Edge:
Amherst is dressing 7 seniors who have played in two NESCAC Championship games as well as three Tournament games. The Jeffs have a record of 12-1-0 on home ice this season. They are 6-2 in one goal games and 7-1 in two goal games. Finally, they own the special teams advantage: 25.6 on the PP and 85.3 on the PK vs Tufts 15.5 PP and 77.1 PK.
Bottom Line:
On paper, Amherst should win this game no matter which way you look at it. But the same was said
about last weekend’s Tufts-Trinity game. In the playoffs, you can throw numbers out. It isn’t about
history, stats or records. It’s about who executes the best when the pressure is on. Both teams got the
job done last weekend in games they were outplayed for long stretches. At the end of the day, I’ll take the experience of Amherst – they’ve been here before and know what it takes, but not without a huge effort from the Jumbos.
HITC Editor Note: Tufts is a great story and will give a valiant effort, but we have the hosts taking down the upstart Jumbos, 3-1, to setup the biggest little hockey conference final in America and a rematch of last year's semis.
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