Saturday, February 27, 2016

NESCAC Quarterfinals Preview 2/27/16

#6 Amherst at #3 Bowdoin   3PM  Video 
Amherst (9-11-4; 7-8-3 NESCAC) (all Stats from conference games)
Offense - 1.83 G/GM (9th in NESCAC)
Defense - 2.11 G/GM (2nd)
PIM - 9.3/GM (4th)
Power Play - 13.4% (9th)
Penalty Kill- 87.5% (2nd)
Special Teams Net - +2 (3rd)

 Bowdoin (13-7-4;9-5-4 NESCAC)
Offense - 2.94 G/Gm (2nd)
Defense - 2.33 G/Gm (6th)
PIM- 9.2/GM (6th)
Power Play - 15.7 % (6th) 
Penalty Kill - 77.6% (10th)
Special Teams Net - -3 (9th)


Bowdoin Preview   Amherst Preview

 The Lowdown: The End of an Era
Barring upsets of both Williams and Trinity this weekend, this will be the last home game of the 33 year Terry Meagher era at Bowdoin. A home playoff game to send off Meagher did not look likely at the midpoint of the season, as the first half saw the Polar Bears floundering in the NESCAC standings and included a rare OOC 8-3 thumping at the hands of in-state rival University of New England. But the emergence of the team's offense and Peter Cronin's work in net currently has Meagher's men on a ten game unbeaten streak (9-0-1), which has included wins over the top seeded Ephs and second seeded Bantams.

 The streak also includes a 3-1 victory over the PBs Quarterfinal opponent, defending NESCAC champion Amherst. That game came at Amherst, while the teams also tied in Brunswick in a 0-0 goalie fest, the first of its kind for Bowdoin in the 21s century. Amherst hasn't played on the road in the NESCAC quarters since 2007 when they finished fifth in the conference. The teams last met in the NESCAC playoffs in the 2014 finals when the PBs held that very same fifth seed and defeated the second seed Purple and White in double OT. Bowdoin has owned the playoff series against Amherst in general, winning six of the seven matchups all-time. Bowdoin last hosted a playoff game in the 2013 finals when they defeated Williams for their first of two straight titles. 

 Part of the reason Amherst isn't hosting a NESCAC Quarterfinal is their anemic offense, which features exactly 0 players with double digit goals scored. Last year's NESCAC Rookie of the Year, David White, only has three goals this season as compared to the 20 he had in last year's run to the D-III Final Four. In net, Dave Cunningham has rebounded from an injury shortened 2014-15 campaign with a 1.99 GAA and .930 save percentage stat line in conference games, though Air Force transfer Connor Girard has seen significant time in net, especially down the stretch. 

 If Amherst has moved towards a rotation in net, ironically Meagher has moved away from his preferred platoon of recent memory to the workhorse model for sophomore Cronin. The Norwell, Mass. native has solid but not overpowering numbers, though he has shown he can come up big in tight games, including a 33 save performance in the 1-0 win over Williams and 36 saves in the 2-1 win over Trinity, not to mention a 36 save effort in the win over Amherst and 46 saves in the 0-0 tie against the Purple and White. On the offensive end, the Polar Bears are paced by double digit goal socring underclassmen in freshman Cody Todesco and sophomore Matt Lison, who showed flashes of promise in his injury plagued freshman season. 

 Last weekend, the NHL was supposed to air a segment on Boston College groeat Jerry York reaching 1,000 wins and Meagher retiring. The segment didn't air until later on NBC Sports Network, but you can find it here. It includes video of Bowdoin's final regular season home game against Trinity (complete with play-by-play from NSN's Rob Kennedy) and an interview with Bowdoin's bench boss. 

 Pre-Game Tweet :

#7 Colby at #2 Trinity  3PM  Video 
Colby (9-10-5; 6-9-3 NESCAC)
Offense - 2.28 G/GM (7th)
Defense - 2.72 G/GM (8th)
PIM - 6.9/GM (9th)
Power Play - 18.2 % (4th) 
Penalty Kill - 85.7 % (3rd)
Special Teams Net - +3 (2nd)
Trinity (18-5-1; 14-4-0 NESCAC)
Offense - 3.44 G/GM (1st) 
Defense - 2.11 G/GM (2nd) 
PIM - 10.4/GM (2nd)
Power Play - 18.5 % (2nd)
Penalty Kill - 82.5% (7th)
Special Teams Net - +2 (3rd) 
Trinity Preview   Colby Preview


The Lowdown: 1st is the Worst, 2nd is the Best?
Trinity enters the playoffs as a non-one seed for the first time since the 2013 playoffs, which may be a good thing for the Bantams, at least from a NESCAC playoff perspective. Trinity may be defending national champions, but they were also knocked out of the 2015 NESCAC playoffs by eighth seed Tufts in the Quarterfinals. This year they won't be able to get a Pool C bid to the tournament if they get bounced today, so if they lose to Colby the title defense is over. In 2014, the Bantams hosted championship weekend but were upset by eventual NESCAC champion Bowdoin in the semifinals.

The Mules return to the playoffs after a one year absence after finishing ninth last season. Colby avoided a third straight matchup with Williams in the Quarterfinals (2013, 2014) by defeating Tufts in their final game of the regular season. Colby lost both of the games to the Ephs, but they have had an equally troubled past with the Bantams in the playoffs, going 0-4 All-Time. This season, the Bantams won both matchups between the squads.

If the Mules want to make it to their first NESCAC championship weekend since 2011 they will - pardon the cliche of all hockey cliches - need a big game from goaltender Emerson Verrier against the number one offense in the 'CAC three years running. Verrier, like his Pine Tree State sophomore counterpart Cronin, has been a mainstay in net, trailing just Cronin and Hamilton's Evan Buitenhuis for most minutes played in conference. Verrier (2.53 GAA, .921 save percentage) gave up four goals last time out in Hartford, but he also made 45 saves.  Tufts Mason Pulde made 42 big saves in last season's upset of the Bantams in the Quartefinals. As always, a goalie stands on his/her head

On the other end of the ice, 2015 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player Nate Heilbron has shared time in net with s Alex Morin. The sophomore has had the better go of it statistical in conferenrece (1.88 GAA , .931 save percentage vs 2.22 GAA, .921 save percentage), but the senior Heilbron has the experience with last year's championship run, though that included a loss in his only NESCAC playoff game.

On offense,  sophomore Anthony Sabitsky leads the high octane Bants in overall scoring with 25 points (11-14-25) while junior Ethan Holdaway has had a breakout year in the goals department with 13 to lead Trinity. Reigning NESCAC Player of the Year Ryan Cole, who like now senior Mike Hawkrigg joined the 100 point club as a junior, hasn't had the same kind of output statistically as his first two seasons, but he has owned Colby for his career, posting 14 points (8-6-14) in six career games against the Mules.

Pre-game Tweet:



#5 Middlebury at #4 Hamilton 4PM  Video
Middlebury (7-10-7; 6-5-7) 
Offense - 2.56 G/GM (4th)
Defense  - 2.28 G/GM (5th) 
PIM - 8.2/GM (7th) 
Power Play - 16.7% (5th)
Penalty Kill - 82% (8th)
Special Teams Net  -  -1 (5th)
Hamilton (13-7-4; 8-6-4)
Offense - 2.56 G/GM (4th)
Defense - 2.11 G/GM (2nd)
PIM - 10.1/GM (3rd)
Power Play - 13.6% (8th)
Penalty Kill - 85.3% (4th)
Special Teams Net - -2 (6th)
Hamilton Preview    

 The Lowdown: Even Stevens
From a pedigree standpoint, the schools couldn't be more different, with Middlebury sporting a 7-0 mark against Hamilton in the NESCAC playoffs as well as  eight national titles and conference crowns to the Continentals zero in both categories. But as has been beaten to death here and elsewhere on the D-III hockey interwebs, Middlebury's dominance is a thing of the past with the Panthers now playing a road Quartefinal game in three of the last four years after finishing in the top three for the first 13 years of conferencce play. As for this season - the first of the post Bill Beaney era for Middlebury - these two teams matchup pretty evenly both in statistics and the fact that they tied both times they met in the regular season.

It is the first home playoff game for coach Rob Haberbusch, who took over for current UMass-Lowell coach Norm Bazin in 2011 after Bazin led the Continentals to the #1 overall seed only to be bounced by the eight seed Wesleyan Cardinals. At one point this season, an even higher seed seemed possible for Hamilton when they rode an 11 game unbeaten streak (9-0-2) in December and January. The Continentals went 2-4-2 down the stretch, including ties at Middlebury and Williams in the final regular season weekend. Middlebury was 0-3-3 down the stretch before beating Amherst on the final day of the season to earn the fifth seed.

Hamilton's success midseason was largely predicated on sophomore Evan Buitenhuis play in net and their top line of Robbie Murden, Neil Conway and Brandon Willett, who account for 36 of the teams 71 goals on the season (all games, including OOC). Junior Murden and sophomore Conway have particularly carried the load, with Murden's 20 points in conference games (10-10-20) coming in at #1 and Willet's 19 points (9-10-19) coming in at #2. The Boston Globe did a Q+A with Conway, who apparently wants to be the next Wolf of Wall Street.

For the Panthers, their scoring is more diffuse and senior laden with Evan Neugold leading the team in points (5-13-18) and Zach Hagerty leading the team in goals with eight. Senior Liam Moorfield-Yee has taken over in net after starter Stephen Klein went down with injury the first weekend in February. Moorfield-Yee has a 2.69 GAA and .927 save percentage in conference games this season, including a 37 save effort against Hamilton last weekend.

Pre-game Tweet:
#8 Tufts at #1 Williams  4:30 PM   Video
Tufts (9-9-6; 5-8-5)
Offense - 2.39 G/GM (6th)
Defense -  2.33 G/GM (6th)
PIM - 15.2/GM (1st)
Power Play - 18.5% (2nd)
Penalty Kill - 84.4% (5th)
Special Teams Net -  -2 (6th)
Williams (18-4-2; 14-4-2)
Offense - 2.72 G/GM (3rd)
Defense - 1.50 G/GM (1st)
PIM - 6.6/GM (10th)
Power Play - 19.2% (1st)
Penalty Kill - 88.7% (1st)
Special Teams Net - +6 (1st)
Williams Preview    Tufts Preview     Berkshire Eagle Preview

 The Lowdown: Heavy is the head...
Williams won their first ever NESCAC regular season crown, thanks in large part to sweeping the season series with second seed Trinity. But the Ephs must be careful of the top spot, as they face off against a Tufts team that shocked first seed Trinity as an eight seed in last year's playoff. The Jumbos return  the goalie from that upset, now sophomore Mason Pulde, who is second in NESCAC conferene games with a .946 save percentage just behind Ephs senior Noah Klag, who has a .961 saver percentage in conference, including two shutouts in wins over the Jumbos this season. The Ephs have two solid goalies and will likely start freshman Michael Pinios, who posted more minutes in conference games than Klag and had a solid .938 save percentage as well.

There's little history in the playoffs between these two squads as the Jumbos are making only their sixth appearance in the NESCAC tournament and the first back-to-back appearances for the program in coach Pat Norton's first season behind the bench. The Ephs and Jumbos met only one other time with fifth seed Williams defeating fourth seed Tufts in OT in 2012. It was the only home playoff game the Jumbos have ever had.

The Ephs score by committee with five players (Italiano, Young, Cretella, Massuci, Hunkele) having seven or eight goals on the season with Italiano's 21 points (8-13-21) leading the team. Frosh Roberto Cellini has six goals on the season but  five have come in conference games. The Jumbos also spread the tallies around with Goldberg, Bell and Lackner all tied for the team lead with six conference goals. Brian Brown leads the team with 18 points (6-12-18) but only eight (1-7-8) come in conference games.

Williams should be able to take care of business at home, where they have gone 10-1-1 this season with the only loss  coming out-of-conference vs Genesseo. A few quick goals early and another strong performance from Pulde, however, and the Jumbos could find themselves in championship weekend for the second straight year. The Ephs, however, would not be phased from coming behind as their current nine game unbeaten streak (8-0-1) includes a run of four straight games in which the Ephs trailed by two goals but ended up winning.

Pre-game Tweet:



So you made it to the NESCAC playoffs. Congratulations! Now it all means nothing as you face the pressure of the single elimination tournament in which a loss means the certain end of your season if your mascot isn't an angry little bird or a purple cow. At the risk of dishonoring the memories of Freddie Mercury or David Bowie, here's The Used/My Chemical Romance's cover of "Under Pressure" 
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