Friday, February 24, 2017

NESCAC Quarterfinals 2/24/17 Preview

It's finally here, playoff time! All stats are in conference games. Let's start with the two 1 PM games and we'll update with the 3 PM games as well.

#8 Bowdoin at #1 Hamilton 1PM  Video
Bowdoin (8-15-1; 5-12-1 NESCAC)
Offense - 2.78 G/Gm (3rd)
Defense - 3.61 G/Gm (9th)
PIM- 11.1/GM (5th)
Power Play - 12.7 % (8th) 
Penalty Kill - 77.1% (9th)
Special Teams Net -  -9  (9th)

Hamilton (17-3-4; 11-3-4)
Offense - 2.78 G/GM (3rd)
Defense - 1.56 G/GM (1st)
PIM - 9.2/GM (6th)
Power Play - 12.3% (9th)
Penalty Kill - 87.7% (2nd)

Special Teams Net - +4 (4th)




Hamilton Preview   Bowdoin Orient Preview

The Lowdown: How the Tables Have Turned
The last time these two met in the NESCAC Quarterfinals in 2013, Bowdoin was the top seed and Hamilton was eighth. Hamilton had a 3-2 lead with twelve minutes to play before the powerful Polar Bear attack took over for a 5-3 win. The Polar Bears had their own third period collapse last season at home against Amherst and the downward trend continued into this season in Jamie Dumont's first year replacing Terry Meagher. Despite having a mostly upperclassmen blueline crew and returning goalie in sophomore Peter Cronin, the Polar Bears have struggled defensively. Up front, they are once again led by sophomore Cody Todesco.  The seniors on the team will remember making a "Men In Black" run to the NESCAC title back in 2014, though that was from the fifth seed and not the eighth.

Hamilton also lost their home NESCAC playoff game last season, their first home playoff game since 2011 when they lost a quarterfinal as a number one seed. In fact, of Hamilton's six NESCAC playoff wins, none have come in Clinton. The Conts are 0-3 all time at home in the playoffs, though they are 3-2 all-time against the Polar Bears. Recent trends are not on their side, however, with the last two 8/1 matchups going to eighth seed Tufts.

Unlike Bowdoin, Hamilton picked themselves up from their OT loss to Middlebury last season and reversed course, thanks in large part to the continued excellent playoff of 2016 1st Team All-NESCAC goalie Evan Buitenhuis, who will almost certainly repeat in that position, if not NESCAC Player of the Year. Up front, the boys in blue are not as potent with 1st Team All-NESCAC forward Robbie Murden's stats down (4-6-10) in 17 games before breaking his jaw (though he may come back for championship weekend if the Conts make it). Leading goal-scorer Brandon Willett went down with a leg injury in the final weekend, so the Conts will need upperclassmen like Neil Conway and lower classmen like Jason Brochu and Rory Gagnon to pick up the slack to earn the school their first ever hosted NESCAC championship.

This season Hamilton swept the season series with a 6-3 home and 3-1 road victory. The goalie in both games for Bowdoin was Peter Cronin, who has not had a consistent season but has shown flashes this season, including a 43 save shutout of Tufts. Speaking of the  Jumbos, Cronin will need to do his best Mason Pulde impression to kick off another Men in Black run.

Pre-game tweet:


#6 Tufts at #3 Trinity   1 PM  Video
Tufts (11-10-3; 9-8-1)
Offense - 2.39 G/GM (8th)
Defense -  2.44 G/GM (5th)
PIM - 8.6/GM (9th)
Power Play - 17.8% (4th)
Penalty Kill - 85.1% (5th)
Special Teams Net -  +3 (6th)


Trinity (15-6-3; 11-5-2 NESCAC)
Offense - 3.61 G/GM (1st) 
Defense - 1.94 G/GM (2nd) 
PIM - 12.9/GM (3rd)
Power Play - 17.2% (5th)
Penalty Kill - 86.8% (4th)
Special Teams Net - +5 (2nd) 



The Lowdown: You Again...
The Jumbos and Bantams meet for the third straight playoffs in Hartford. There was the much discussed #8/#1 upset in 2015 followed by the Bantams revenge last season in the #8/2 matchup in the semis. Trinity won the only other time the two met in the playoffs and in general has dominate the all-time series 29-6-1. The Jumbos will be without the hero of 2015, Mason Pulde, who went down with an ACL tear in January. Nik Nugnes has stepped up for the Jumbos down the stretch, including a six game stretch in February in which he gave up five goals total before giving up three to Colby in the regular season finale. On the other end of the ice, the Jumbos have not shown a propensity to come back if Nugnes or Pulde let up goals early. The Jumbos feature no double digit goal scorers on the roster and are 1-7-0 when trailing after one period of play.

For the Bantams, junior netminder Alex Morin rebounded from an inconsistent fall semester to post a ten game stretch at the end of the regular season in which he gave up two goals or less in each contest. Matt Greason's team is as stacked offensively as ever with four players in striking distance of thirty points on the season (Sean Orlando, Ryan Cole, Anthony Sabitsky and Tyler Whitney) though some of those stats are inflated with some blowouts of cupcakes on the OOC schedule.

Even within the schedule however, the Bantams are the most potent attack in the 'CAC, especially at home in Hartford. One of their offensive outbursts included a 7-1 maiming of the Jumbos in January.  Tufts did defeat Trinity, however, on opening night in November at the Malden Valley Forum thanks to a 36 save performance by a now injured Pulde and two third period goals from points leader Brian Brown.

Given the Bantams propensity for making team's pay for defensive zone mistakes and the Jumbos inability to come from behind, limiting mistakes will be paramount for the Jumbos. They will not win in an uptempo game against a Bantam team that forced them to use three goalies in the January matchup. The Jumbos will  need to channel the blue collar themes of their hometown (ish) band, The Dropkick Murphy's and rely on leaders like senior workhorse Sean Kavanagh, who hasn't missed a game on the blueline in his four years in powder blue and brown.

Pre-game tweet:



#7 Wesleyan at #2 Colby    3 PM   Video

Wesleyan (12-8-4; 7-7-4 NESCAC) 
Offense - 2.56 G/GM (6th)
Defense -  2.72 G/GM (6th)
PIM - 6.8/GM (10th)
Power Play - 21.2% (3rd)
Penalty Kill - 92.3% (1st)
Special Teams Net -  +8 (1st)


Colby (13-6-4; 11-4-3 NESCAC)
Offense - 2.61 G/GM (5th)
Defense - 2.00 G/GM (3rd)
PIM - 8.9/GM (7th)
Power Play - 16.9 % (6th) 
Penalty Kill - 80.6 % (7th)
Special Teams Net - 0 (7th)



The Lowdown: Breaking Through
Colby hosts its first home NESCAC playoff game since 2008 when they were the 1st overall seed, and both teams look to make their first championship weekend appearance since 2011. The Mules didn't get their dream matchup of #8/#1 vs Bowdoin this season but they did make the largest climb in the NESCAC this season from seventh last year to second this year in the fifth season of the Blaise MacDonald era.

It will be a tough task for Wesleyan to break through to the semis against a Mules squad that hasn't lost at home in conference this season. The Mules enter the game on a three game wining streak that began with a 3-2 win over Wesleyan in the nutmeg state (powered by two Michael Rudolf tallies) while the Cardinals are inverseley on a three game losing streak started that day. The Cardinals are the only NESCAC team not to lose on Mayflower Hill, having escaped in January with a 4-4 tie.  Quinnipiac transfer Sean Lawrence will likely get the start in net in today's game, but back in January freshman Andrew Tucci made the start and Lawrence gave up a goal on the only shot he faced in his brief relief for Tucci while the later fixed his equipment. Since transfering mid-season, Lawerence has the second best save percentage (.944) and third best GAA (1.74) in conference games.

Former workhorse Wesleyan goaltender Dawson Sprigings has given way to a goalie duo with frosh George Blinick in the second half of the season. Blinick has posted better stats but it will be interesting to see if Chris Potter will go with the senior in the playoffs. Only six Cardinals have any playoff roster experience as Wesleyan has missed the NESCAC playoffs the two previous seasons and the seniors were routed by Trinity in their freshman year.  One of those seniors, James Kline leads the team with 23 points overall (8-15-23) while freshman Walker Harris has 21 points (9-12-21) but leads the Cards in conference scoring at 19 (9-10-19).

Colby's offense comes almost entirely from the elderstatesmen on the team with the top seven scorers coming from the junior and senior classes, including Phil Klitirnos (7-16-23) at the top. The Mules are a balanced if not overpowering offensive team with no one in double digit tallies on the season but nine players with at least five goals. Two of their top three scorers, seniors Jack Burton and Geoff Sullivan, earn their roster spots on the blueline.

Pre-Game Tweet:


#5 Amherst at #4 Williams   3 PM   Video
Amherst (14-6-3; 9-6-3 NESCAC) 
Offense - 2.44 G/GM (7th)
Defense 2.11 G/GM (4th)
PIM - 11.4/GM (4th)
Power Play - 23.2% (2nd)
Penalty Kill- 86.9% (3rd)
Special Teams Net - +5 (2nd)

Williams (13-8-3; 10-5-3 NESCAC)
Offense - 3.17 G/GM (2nd)
Defense - 2.72 G/GM (6th)
PIM - 8.7/GM (10th)
Power Play - 24.2% (1st)
Penalty Kill - 78.3% (8th)
Special Teams Net - +4 (4th)





The Lowdown: Have you Guys Met?

These two teams are no strangers, both historically as schools and recently in hockey as they met last week in Amherst with the Purple and White blanking the Ephs 1-0. That score in that location was identical to the 2015 NESCAC Championship game, the last time these two met int he playoffs.

The Ephs had a rough final weekend of the regular season falling from first to fourth, but will still host their archrivals, whom they beat 4-3 in Williamstown earlier this season. The Purple and White hold a 4-1 edge in playoff games with the Ephs last playoff win over their bete noir coming in 2000.

The biggest dropoff for the Ephs this season has come on the defensive/goaltending side of the ledger. 2016 Second Team All-NESCAC goalie and Co-Rookie of the Year Michael Pinios has hit a sophomore slump, with his GAA up over a goal and his save percentage down .056.

Pre-Game Tweet:


Yes folks, that very random, gratuitous Dropkicks reference in the Tufts preview means that 
I just learned they have a new album out. But I digress. The most exciting part of the playoffs is that the slates are clean and the season starts anew with everything on the line. So a rebel with a cause, like the Jumbos out of the eight seed the past two seasons, can turn around a disappointing season with three magical periods. 


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