Saturday, March 17, 2018

NCAA Tournament Quarterfinals Preview

Tonight is the night! Colby traveled almost 600 miles for a chance to make it to the DIII Frozen Four with a win in beautiful Geneseo, NY. Stats are nationally rankings in DIII

Colby at Geneseo 7 PM  Video
 Colby (16-10-2)

Offense - 3.43 G/GM (20th)
Defense - 2.39 G/GM (19th)
PIM - 7.75/GM (78th)
Power Play - 19.27 % (36th) 
Penalty Kill - 81.93% (39th)

         SUNY Geneseo (20-5-3)
             Offense - 4.43 G/GM (6th)
             Defense - 2.07 G/GM (12th)
             PIM - 9.82/GM (67th)
             Power Play - 23.36% (13th) 
             Penalty Kill - 84.47% (25th)


 Colby Preview 
Geneseo Preview 
USCHO Picks
USCHO Colby Feature
D3Hockey.com Preview
CentralMaine.com Preview
CentralMaine.Com Colby Fourth Line Feature
CentralMaine.com Rudolf Feature

 
A Clash of Contrasting Similarities
If Colby knew the young University of New England program they faced in the first round, both by proximity and recent history , the SUNY Geneseo Knights are a bit more mysterious to the Mules in both categories.  For starters, to say both teams are from the east region is a true statement, but requires some clarification. The elite, private liberal arts college on Mayflower Hill in Maine is some 582 miles from the State University of New York at Geneseo, or roughly similar to the trek from New York City to Adrian, Michigan, another site of one of tonight's four NCAA DIII men's hockey quarterfinals. 

Thankfully the Mules didn't have to drive, as they stayed in Boston for a night before flying in to Rochester to practice at D1 RIT and then driving down to Geneseo. But be it bus, plane, kayak, Paul Blart's segway, etc. the Mules have been comfortable on the road as of late. Dating back to the final weekend of the regular season, Colby has been on the road the past five weekends to the tune of a 5-0-1 record, a stint in which Sean Lawrence and the gang has not given up more than two goals. 

The Road Warrior Mules™ last faced the Geneseo Ice Knights in November of 2016, only the second time the two programs have ever met, at home in Waterville as part of the Bowdoin/Colby Faceoff Classic. Colby carried a 3-2 lead into the final minute of that affair before the Knights scored in the final thirty seconds of regulation and in the subsequent overtime period for a 4-3 victory. One key difference between that Mules team and this is that Sean Lawrence was still a month away from enrolling as a student at Colby at that point  We don't have to go over how important Lawrence has been to this playoff run as we and others have espoused on it at length the past month. 

One key similarity to that game, however, is that Devin McDonald was in net for the Knights. The now junior and Third Team All-SUNYAC goalie (.927 Save%, 1.79 GAA) made 39 saves as a sophomore to defeat the Mules and as a freshman he made 31 saves to defeat Williams 2-1 in the 2016 NCAA Quarterfinals at the Ira S. Wilson Ice Arena (aka The IRA), site of tonight's game against Colby. Geneseo has one of the best fanbases in DIII hockey (including a pep band) and they are likely to pack the IRA, though it might be somewhat tempered a bit by spring break absences as the atmosphere was against Williams.

Whether it is the diminuitive McDonald, the crowd, or Geneseo's top ten offense, the IRA has been one of the hardest places to play in DIII this season.  The Knights are 12-0-1 at home in 2017-18 and have outscored opponents 63-13. In one of the Central Maine previews, Colby coach Blaise MacDonald compared the Knights to the Trinity Bantams (without much detail other than they have similar "elements") and the comparison is apt in the shots department. Shots may be an archaic, over simplified stat, but it is one of the few we have at the DIII level, so we marveled all year at how thoroughly dominant the Bantams were at outshooting opponents in all but one game. The Knights are not far behind, outshooting opponents in all but three games this season for a 1,068-700 shots advantage.

One of those few times they were outshot was last weekend in the NCAA Quarterfinals at "The Cooler" against Hobart. McDonald came up big with 36 saves and the Geneseo fourth line unexpectedly became the hero with four goals in the first six minutes of action en route to a 4-2 victory, the program's first NCAA Tournament road victory in school history. Though it was the first road victory, it was certainly not the first NCAA Tournament victory, as the Knights have been to two of the last four DIII Frozen Fours in 2014 and 2016 (they alternate with their doppleganger Trinity, apparently).  

Junior Arthur Gordon, who scored the two goals against Williams in the 2016 quarterfinals, was part of that 2016 team, but many of the other forwards will not remember a home NCAA playoff game, as the Knights four leading scorers, all at 30+ points, are sophomores, including First Team All-SUNYAC member Conlan Keenan and Second Team Tyson Empey. On the back end, the Knights are a bit more seasoned, led by first team All-SUNYAC senior Pat Condon, who scored two goals against Colby last season, and Third Team member Duggie Lagrone.

The Mules do not have 30+ point scorers (even though Colby led the NESCAC in scoring no forwards made the All-NESCAC team) and their NCAA tournament experience is limited to this year and being swept by eventual national champion Middlebury in 1996 (eight team tournament, best-of-three series in Quarters). But like Geneseo showed last round, the Mules run four lines deep as well. One of the Central Maine articles focused on the fourth line of junior Zack Hale (who scored in the NESAC title game), freshman Joe Schuler (who scored last weekend against UNE) and senior Griffin Fadden, who has only two collegiate goals but came up with an epic, no-regard-for-human-life block last weekend that cost him a tooth and a facemask, not to mention a significant amount of blood.

Speaking of blocked shots, it has been a theme of late with monster efforts in general in this winning streak for the Mules and specifically in the last two games. One of the tidbits from the various articles that have popped up in this run is a team meeting about six weeks ago when the team recommitted to their defensive scheme, an anecdote that has been born out in the box score and wins column since then. They don't keep publicly available individual blocked shots stats, but I would guess senior Dan Dupont is up there, though as All-NESCAC defenseman Mike Decker pointed out to us on twitter last week, it is a culture thing more than any one individual guy. 

The team has overall buy-in from the coaches to one another, from leading scorer Kienan Scott, who scored two goals last week, and his line, to the coaches son and leading goal scorer Cam MacDonald, and his line, to finally healthy blueliner Andrew Reis and everyone in between. The Mules led throughout the NESCAC playoffs, but the team really showed their mettle when they fell behind on the road to UNE after one and fought back to not only win the game, but control it.

So win, lose or, well there are no draws in playoff hockey, the Mules will no doubt live up to the trite but rue maxim of leaving everything on the ice in the IRA on St. Patrick's Day (make of that phrasing what you will). 



A team meeting six weeks ago and the Colby boys were back in, locked, loaded and focused. Happy St. Patty's Day y'all.

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