Hellloooooo NESCAC fans. Our apologies for the twitter only presence this season - life and such - but we are here now with some tidying up to do before the playoffs. The NESCAC, per the usual, remains very tight with just one game to play for each team. No seedings are final and the only assured result is that Colby will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
Williams (12-5-0 in conference)
The Ephs sit in the top spot and control their own destiny for what would be their second NESCAC regular season crown and first since 2016. Kangas' crew has done it on both ends of the ice with the top scoring offense in the CAC (3.18 GAA) and the best defense at 1.94 GAA. The underclassmen backstop duo of Evan Ruschil and Cossimo Lazzarino lead the conference in save percentage at .943 and .941 respectively.
Despite losing last night to Hamilton, Williams still secures the top seed with a win against bete noir Amherst today. The farthest the Ephs can fall is to three, and that's only with a Hamilton win against Middlebury and an Ephs loss to the Mammoths. Williams will need to stay ahead of the Bantams, who own the tiebreaker after a series sweep this season in Williamstown and Hartford. There's a chance for a three way tie at the top which we will deal with in the Trinity section. Regardless of spot, the Ephs will avoid a third straight year without a NESCAC quarterfinal home playoff game, something that hasn't happened since a 2001-2003 stretch.
Trinity (11-5-1 in NESCAC)
The Bantams head into the final day assured a top three finish for the eighth straight season, a feat that only Middlebury had previously accomplished. In order to win the Bantams' third straight regular season top finish, they'll need to take care of business on the road against Wesleyan. While the Bantams hold the tiebreaker over Williams, they split the season series with Hamilton, so other tiebreakers will come into effect should Hamilton defeat Middlebury and Trinity ties Wesleyan, or if Hamilton ties Middlebury and Trinity loses to Wesleyan.
That's where things get fun (depending on your connotative understanding of the word). In the scenario in which Hamilton ties and Trinity loses, Trinity would get the tiebreaker with more conference wins. In the scenario in which they both finish 11-5-2, it depends on what Williams does. A Williams loss would result in a threeway tie at 24 points. Going to head-to-head, Trinity and Hamilton are 3-1-0 with Williams at 4-0-0 putting them in third. The top spot between Hamilton and Trinity depends on who finishes in the top four along with Williams, Hamilton and Trinity, as the next tiebreaker is record against the top four teams in the league. That fourth spot could be occupied by any one of Amherst, Wesleyan, Middlebury and Bowdoin, depending on today's results.
If Williams ties or wins to take the top spot and Trinity/Hamilton both finish at 11-5-2, the same scenario for record against top four teams would hold for the tiebreaker for second place. Confused yet?
Hamilton (10-5-2 in NESCAC)
The Continentals head to Vermont assured of their fifth straight home NESCAC quarterfinal home game (they had two in the previous sixteen seasons). The Conts still have a shot at their third ever top regular season finish if they can beat Williams and Trinity loses to Wesleyan. It could also happen with a win and a Trinity tie, but that would depend on who finishes in the top four as mentioned above. And one wrinkle we haven't mentioned yet, the way the rules are written states "all teams at the four spot" so that, we think, would mean including records of all the teams at the four spot, which could be anywhere from one to four teams as you will see below.
That's where things get fun (depending on your connotative understanding of the word). In the scenario in which Hamilton ties and Trinity loses, Trinity would get the tiebreaker with more conference wins. In the scenario in which they both finish 11-5-2, it depends on what Williams does. A Williams loss would result in a threeway tie at 24 points. Going to head-to-head, Trinity and Hamilton are 3-1-0 with Williams at 4-0-0 putting them in third. The top spot between Hamilton and Trinity depends on who finishes in the top four along with Williams, Hamilton and Trinity, as the next tiebreaker is record against the top four teams in the league. That fourth spot could be occupied by any one of Amherst, Wesleyan, Middlebury and Bowdoin, depending on today's results.
If Williams ties or wins to take the top spot and Trinity/Hamilton both finish at 11-5-2, the same scenario for record against top four teams would hold for the tiebreaker for second place. Confused yet?
Hamilton (10-5-2 in NESCAC)
The Continentals head to Vermont assured of their fifth straight home NESCAC quarterfinal home game (they had two in the previous sixteen seasons). The Conts still have a shot at their third ever top regular season finish if they can beat Williams and Trinity loses to Wesleyan. It could also happen with a win and a Trinity tie, but that would depend on who finishes in the top four as mentioned above. And one wrinkle we haven't mentioned yet, the way the rules are written states "all teams at the four spot" so that, we think, would mean including records of all the teams at the four spot, which could be anywhere from one to four teams as you will see below.
Amherst (7-7-3 in NESCAC)
Now things get really fun at the fourth spot log jam. The Mammoths had come into this weekend the hottest team in the NESCAC having not lost since a January 11th game at Bowdoin, while Middlebury entered of the coldest teams in the NESCAC with a 1-6-3 mark in conference in the same stretch. Of course that meant the Panthers winning an OT thriller because the NESCAC gonna NESCAC.
Unfortunately for the Mammoths, they lose the tiebreaker to both Middlebury and Wesleyan individually. If there is a three-way tie between them, Middlebury would be the top of the three with a 3-1-0 record among the group, then Wesleyan at 2-1-1 and Amherst at 0-3-1. We will deal with the unlikely four way tie scenario later with Bowdoin.
Middlebury (7-7-3 in NESCAC)
Middlebury's OT win over Amherst put them in a position to host a playoff game for the first time since 2014. If the Panthers win or tie and Amherst/Wesleyan can't match, they take the four spot. Middlebury holds the tiebreaker over the Mammoths but split the season series with Wesleyan, so other tiebreakers would come into effect. Wesleyan holds the upper hand as the next tiebreaker is conference wins and in any tie scenario the Cardinals would have more wins. In a three-way scenario, however, the Panthers would be the top of the three because the NESCAC is fun, as you know.
Wesleyan (8-8-1 in NESCAC)
The Cardinals defeated Trinity in Hartford last night to keep their hopes alive for the program's first ever back-to-back quarterfinal home games. The Cardinals can fall no lower than seventh assuring their best regular season finish in consecutive seasons (they finished second last year) since consecutive sixth place finishes in 2012 and 2013. Wesleyan would win the head to heads against both Middlebury and Wesleyan but would be second in the pecking order in a three-way tie as noted above.
Update: There is also the possibility of a three-way tie between Bowdoin, Wesleyan and Amherst for fifth, in which case Wesleyan would get the fifth seed (2-1-1 record), Bowdoin the sixth (2-2-0) and Amherst the seventh (1-2-1).
Bowdoin (7-9-1 in NESCAC)
Things have been fun, as we have noted ad nauseum, but are you ready for bananas? Bowdoin's win over Conn College last night sets up scenarios for the Polar Bears on the final day that range from a chance at a home playoff game for the first time since 2016 (Terry Meagher's last season as coach) to the third straight season on the outside looking in on the playoffs. The home playoff game involves a victory over Tufts while Wesleyan, Middlebury and Amherst all lose (all three are playing top three teams). If that does happen, however, Bowdoin would be four (4-2-0 against the teams in that group), Middlebury five (3-3-0), Wesleyan sixth (3-2-1) and Amherst seventh (1-4-1).
For seeds five and six, should Bowdoin be tied with any of the above, they would win the tiebreaker over Middlebury head to head (beat Middlebury twice) and over Amherst (Amherst would have to lose in this scenario and Bowdoin would have more conference wins). A Bowdoin and Wesleyan tie would depend on which of the above teams finish in the top four. Looking at records against the top three guaranteed teams (Williams, Trinity and Hamilton), Bowdoin is 1-4-1 and Wesleyan would be 2-4-0 (they would have to lose to Trinity today in this scenario) so it would depend on the teams that finish fourth to see what the final tally would be.
On the other hand, Bowdoin could also miss the playoffs. If they lose to Tufts and Conn College beats last place Colby, the Polar Bears would be out as they would lose the season series tiebreaker to the Jumbos. If they lose to Tufts and Conn College ties Colby, we have another lovely three way. In this scenario, Tufts would be the seventh seed (3-1 record), Bowdoin would be the eight seed (2-2) and Conn College would be out of the playoffs (1-3).
Conn College (6-9-2)
A win over last place Colby and the Camels assure themselves a playoff spot after finishing last in the CAC in 2018-19. They can be seventh with a win and a Bowdoin loss, and eighth with a Tufts loss to Bowdoin regardless of the Camels outcome against the Mules. They would miss the playoffs in the threeway scenario above, but there is also the possibility of a Conn College loss and a Tufts tie. In this scenario, they split the season series and would have identical records, so it would go to record against the top four teams. We know who the top three are (Williams, Trinity and Hamilton), so we can start there. Conn College has been solid against the top of the league (2-2-2) while Tufts is 1-5-0. We won't list it out, but if you extend to any of the possible four seeds in this scenario (Amherst, Middlebury, Williams) Conn College would end up with the tiebreaking win.
Tufts (6-10-1)
The Jumbos know one thing for certain, if they don't win at home today against the Polar Bears, they are out of the playoffs for the first time since 2014. A tie as noted above would result in missing the playoffs even if the Camels lose, so a win is a necessity. A win and a Conn College loss would get the Jumbos the seventh seed, while a win and a Conn College win would result in their fifth eighth place finish in the last six seasons. A Jumbos win and a Conn College tie would result in the Jumbos holding the seventh seed as noted above in the Bowdoin section.
Colby (3-12-2)
The Mules won't make a miracle run to the Phrozen Phour as they did just two years ago. Colby will finish last for the first time since 2012, though they can still have an impact on other teams' positions as we have discussed. Colby hasn't faired well on the road, though, as only one of their eight conference points has come outside the friendly confines of the pine tree state, a tie at Amherst a few weeks ago.
Feeling a little crazy with all of these scenarios? In honor, here's a banger (I think that's what the yutes say?) from Halsey and Bring Me The Horizon - "Experiment on Me" off the Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey soundtrack. Not sure if it was the Joker or the NESCAC standings that broke Dr. Harleen Frances Quinzel.
Now things get really fun at the fourth spot log jam. The Mammoths had come into this weekend the hottest team in the NESCAC having not lost since a January 11th game at Bowdoin, while Middlebury entered of the coldest teams in the NESCAC with a 1-6-3 mark in conference in the same stretch. Of course that meant the Panthers winning an OT thriller because the NESCAC gonna NESCAC.
Unfortunately for the Mammoths, they lose the tiebreaker to both Middlebury and Wesleyan individually. If there is a three-way tie between them, Middlebury would be the top of the three with a 3-1-0 record among the group, then Wesleyan at 2-1-1 and Amherst at 0-3-1. We will deal with the unlikely four way tie scenario later with Bowdoin.
Middlebury (7-7-3 in NESCAC)
Middlebury's OT win over Amherst put them in a position to host a playoff game for the first time since 2014. If the Panthers win or tie and Amherst/Wesleyan can't match, they take the four spot. Middlebury holds the tiebreaker over the Mammoths but split the season series with Wesleyan, so other tiebreakers would come into effect. Wesleyan holds the upper hand as the next tiebreaker is conference wins and in any tie scenario the Cardinals would have more wins. In a three-way scenario, however, the Panthers would be the top of the three because the NESCAC is fun, as you know.
Wesleyan (8-8-1 in NESCAC)
The Cardinals defeated Trinity in Hartford last night to keep their hopes alive for the program's first ever back-to-back quarterfinal home games. The Cardinals can fall no lower than seventh assuring their best regular season finish in consecutive seasons (they finished second last year) since consecutive sixth place finishes in 2012 and 2013. Wesleyan would win the head to heads against both Middlebury and Wesleyan but would be second in the pecking order in a three-way tie as noted above.
Update: There is also the possibility of a three-way tie between Bowdoin, Wesleyan and Amherst for fifth, in which case Wesleyan would get the fifth seed (2-1-1 record), Bowdoin the sixth (2-2-0) and Amherst the seventh (1-2-1).
Bowdoin (7-9-1 in NESCAC)
Things have been fun, as we have noted ad nauseum, but are you ready for bananas? Bowdoin's win over Conn College last night sets up scenarios for the Polar Bears on the final day that range from a chance at a home playoff game for the first time since 2016 (Terry Meagher's last season as coach) to the third straight season on the outside looking in on the playoffs. The home playoff game involves a victory over Tufts while Wesleyan, Middlebury and Amherst all lose (all three are playing top three teams). If that does happen, however, Bowdoin would be four (4-2-0 against the teams in that group), Middlebury five (3-3-0), Wesleyan sixth (3-2-1) and Amherst seventh (1-4-1).
For seeds five and six, should Bowdoin be tied with any of the above, they would win the tiebreaker over Middlebury head to head (beat Middlebury twice) and over Amherst (Amherst would have to lose in this scenario and Bowdoin would have more conference wins). A Bowdoin and Wesleyan tie would depend on which of the above teams finish in the top four. Looking at records against the top three guaranteed teams (Williams, Trinity and Hamilton), Bowdoin is 1-4-1 and Wesleyan would be 2-4-0 (they would have to lose to Trinity today in this scenario) so it would depend on the teams that finish fourth to see what the final tally would be.
On the other hand, Bowdoin could also miss the playoffs. If they lose to Tufts and Conn College beats last place Colby, the Polar Bears would be out as they would lose the season series tiebreaker to the Jumbos. If they lose to Tufts and Conn College ties Colby, we have another lovely three way. In this scenario, Tufts would be the seventh seed (3-1 record), Bowdoin would be the eight seed (2-2) and Conn College would be out of the playoffs (1-3).
Conn College (6-9-2)
A win over last place Colby and the Camels assure themselves a playoff spot after finishing last in the CAC in 2018-19. They can be seventh with a win and a Bowdoin loss, and eighth with a Tufts loss to Bowdoin regardless of the Camels outcome against the Mules. They would miss the playoffs in the threeway scenario above, but there is also the possibility of a Conn College loss and a Tufts tie. In this scenario, they split the season series and would have identical records, so it would go to record against the top four teams. We know who the top three are (Williams, Trinity and Hamilton), so we can start there. Conn College has been solid against the top of the league (2-2-2) while Tufts is 1-5-0. We won't list it out, but if you extend to any of the possible four seeds in this scenario (Amherst, Middlebury, Williams) Conn College would end up with the tiebreaking win.
Tufts (6-10-1)
The Jumbos know one thing for certain, if they don't win at home today against the Polar Bears, they are out of the playoffs for the first time since 2014. A tie as noted above would result in missing the playoffs even if the Camels lose, so a win is a necessity. A win and a Conn College loss would get the Jumbos the seventh seed, while a win and a Conn College win would result in their fifth eighth place finish in the last six seasons. A Jumbos win and a Conn College tie would result in the Jumbos holding the seventh seed as noted above in the Bowdoin section.
Colby (3-12-2)
The Mules won't make a miracle run to the Phrozen Phour as they did just two years ago. Colby will finish last for the first time since 2012, though they can still have an impact on other teams' positions as we have discussed. Colby hasn't faired well on the road, though, as only one of their eight conference points has come outside the friendly confines of the pine tree state, a tie at Amherst a few weeks ago.
Feeling a little crazy with all of these scenarios? In honor, here's a banger (I think that's what the yutes say?) from Halsey and Bring Me The Horizon - "Experiment on Me" off the Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey soundtrack. Not sure if it was the Joker or the NESCAC standings that broke Dr. Harleen Frances Quinzel.
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