Can I swim, too? NESCAC chances for a Pool C bid in the NCAA D-III men's ice hockey tournament

Benet Pols examines the NESCAC's chances at putting a second team in the NCAA Tournament; includes an overview of the selection process, a detailed look at the case for each of the four 'CAC schools, an examination of the odds for the rest of the country and what happens behind closed doors in smoke filled rooms on Selection Sunday...

By Benet Pols

With the NESCAC men’s ice hockey Champion set to be crowned sometime Sunday afternoon at Bowdoin College’s Sidney J. Watson Arena in Brunswick, ME, it’s a good time to examine the prospects for a second NESCAC team's inclusion in the NCAA tournament. On Saturday March 2, 2013 at 1:00 PM the second seeded Ephs of Williams take on third seeded Trinity College Bantams. First place Bowdoin faces off against the 5^th seed, and Bowdoin’s playoff bête noire, Middlebury at 4:00. The winners will face-off on Sunday for the Championship with the winner, as most fans know, advancing to the NCAA tourney via the conference’s automatic qualifier (AQ). 

"The Sid" will be packed this weekend 

But what happens to the runner up? Many have been assuming that Bowdoin, by virtue of its (20-3-2) record so far is a lock for a so called Pool-C, or at-large, bid should they fail to win the NESCAC championship.

Not so fast Polar Bear Nation, or Ephs fans, or Bantam backers. Your road to Lake Placid almost certainly requires your team to be hoisting hardware this Sunday afternoon at the Sid. For each of the three top teams there’s a slim chance of getting one of the three Pool-C spots, but because of the intense competition for these spots from other conferences, particularly the ECAC-West, ECAC-East and the SUNYAC, chances of getting a pool-C bid are especially bad this year.

And Middlebury fans? You’re not forgotten, but your only shot at the NCAA tournament is by winning the NESCAC championship this weekend. Better bring your A game Panther Nation. 

With news that Bowdoin will be the host school for the 2014 NCAA Div. III Frozen Four, to be held at the Colisee in Lewiston, the byzantine process of putting together the tournament field will be of even greater interest to not just the NESCAC colleges, but all the other New England conferences.

Eleven seats at the table

Herb Brooks Arena, site of the 2013 NCAA D-3 "Frozen Four"

Eleven colleges qualify for the NCAA Div. III men’s ice hockey tournament. Why such a peculiar number? Why not a tournament friendly number like 12 or 16? NCCA policy limits participation in NCAA tournaments to one school for every 6.5 colleges in the country that field a team. This is true across all Division III sports; so while 73 programs started their seasons with high hopes, eleven will get a chance to play past the first weekend in March.

The five highest ranked teams, as determined by the NCAA, get a first round bye. The remaining six are paired in preliminary matches; the three winners then join the five highest ranked teams to play quarterfinal games. The preliminary games and quarterfinals have traditionally been played at on-campus sites, while the Frozen Four—the semifinals and finals—are played at a neutral site. For 2013, and for four of the past five years, the site is Lake Placid, NY, best known for the Miracle on Ice 1980 Olympic Gold Medal run by Herb Brooks’ US team.

Automatic Qualifiers (AQ) 

There are eight conferences, including NESCAC, whose tournament champion qualifies automatically. This leaves three spots, or at-large bids, for the NCAA to round out the field. There are conferences, such as the ECAC-West, that do not merit an AQ. The primary requirement is that a conference have at least seven members to merit consideration for an AQ. While this may seem arbitrary it approximately mirrors the 1:6.5 ratio for tournament selection. The conferences with AQs are five eastern conferences: the ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, MASCAC,NESCAC & SUNYAC; and three western conferences: the MCHA, MIAC & NCHA. (click on names of conferences for their official websites)

Pool B.

Pool B bids are for independents or colleges in conferences that do not qualify for an AQ. There are no Pool-B eligible teams this year. (For a clear explanation of Pool B as well as a more detailed explanation of the entire selection and seeding process,  see this page from D3hockey.com).

Pool C

Pool C bids are open to every team that did not receive a Pool A bid. It’s essentially an at-large pick. The NCAA uses the following criteria

- Win-loss percentage against regional opponents

- Strength of schedule against regional opponents (SOS is comprised of 2/3 Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) and 1/3 Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP))

- Head-to-head competition

- Results against common in-region opponents

- Results against in-region ranked teams in NCAA rankings

The last criterion is the most misunderstood. Do not rely on polling data accumulated throughout the year in weekly polls such as that on USCHO.com. The NCAA regional rankings, which were released publicly on February 12th, 19th and 27th, determine "ranked" teams.  The regional rankings rate 16 teams from the east and 8 from the west. A fourth set of rankings will be generated on Selection Sunday, March 3rd, but those will not be released to the public. For the sake of ranking, the NCAA considers a team ranked once it appears in its respective regional rankings even if it should fall out at a later date. This year Bowdoin, Williams, Amherst, Trinity and Middlebury have all appeared on the rankings.

There is no hard and fast rule that Pool C teams must come from different conferences or regions. However, looking at past picks suggests a desire by the committee not to overload one conference or region. Geography becomes more important when considering seeding for the tournament rather than qualification. Again the D3hockey page (here) has a concise and thorough explanation.

This makes it likely that one Pool-C bid will come from the West. That way, with the West’s three AQs first round games can be played without making a team cross the country. Again there is no rule, but it seems to be a trend. Moreover, one conference, the NCHA, has two teams - St. Norbert and Wisconsin Eau-Claire- that make a credible argument for a Pool-C pick if they don’t win their tourney.

In the past, NESCAC teams that have failed to win their conference tournament have been picked for Pool-C. But, it’s rare. The most recent year NESCAC warranted two entrants into the final eleven was 2010. Bowdoin fans will remember the Polar Bears finished the regular season with a 17-5-2 overall record and a 14-4-1 mark, good enough for first in the NESCAC. 

Middlebury won the conference title in 2010, but Bowdoin received a Pool C  Bid 

Although Bowdoin hosted the conference tournament, the Polar Bears lost the final by a score of 3-2 on a late Middlebury goal. Since the NESCAC tournament started in 2000, Bowdoin has faced the Panthers five times in the tournament losing each, four of those times in the final.  As conference champion, Middlebury received the AQ and hosted cross-lake rival and perennial SUNY-AC power Plattsburgh State. The Panthers were eliminated 3-2 in OT; Bowdoin received a Pool-C pick and traveled to Oswego, NY where they were pasted 9-2 by the Lakers, also a member of SUNY-AC and a near constant presence in the NCAA tournament.

Shouldn’t the Polar Bears be on solid ice this year for an at-large bid? After all, their record is even better at 20-3-2 so far. And the Polar Bears remained unbeaten longer than any team in the country. Williams has played well all season and been ranked nationally consistently. They’ve played a solid out of conference schedule. And Trinity has come on strong late in the season thumping Bowdoin 10-5 to end NESCAC play.

So what’s different this year? Why shouldn't any of these three teams feel confident about a Pool-C selection?  In short, because of the play in other conferences.              

Other Conferences            

ECAC-W is one of strongest conferences, but doesn't get an AQ

The ECAC-West is the biggest difference. The conference has just six teams and thus does not have an AQ. However Utica 20-5-1, and Hobart 19-5-2 have consistently been ranked highly in the USCHO polls all year long. Manhattanville, at 15-9-3, has made the poll occasionally and just rejoined the top 15. Likewise Neumann, currently 18-6-3, which has been outside the polls most of the year, has now cracked the top 15. Neumann can also boast a victory over a D-1 team, vanquishing the Nitany Lions of Penn State back in January. The all important NCAA regional rankings currently show four of the six ECAC-W teams making the grade: Utica at 2, Hobart at 6, Neumann at 7 and Manhattanville at 13.

It’s not as crowded at the top of SUNYAC, but both Oswego and Plattsburgh, who play each other for the SUNYAC crown on March 2nd, have a legitimate claim on a Pool C bid should they not win the tournament. Oswego has a stronger paper argument as they’re ranked 3rd in the NCAA Regional Rankings, but Plattsburgh has beaten the Lakers in both their regular season match-ups. Moreover, Plattsburgh is 3-1 against NESCAC opponents this year including an early season 3-2 loss to Middlebury, a win over Wesleyan,5-1, a solid thrashing of Middlebury,7-1, and a dramatic come from behind 5-4 OT win against Williams. The Ephs had a 4-1 lead after two, but surrendered it in the third before losing in the extra frame. Oswego met just one NESCAC team, thrashing Hamilton 8-0.

Likewise, ECAC-East has three teams ranked in the USCHO top 15. Norwich has been at, or near, the top all season; should they fail to win their conference tournament the Cadets would be a likely pick for Pool-C. But Babson at 5th, and UMass Boston at 10th, have harder arguments.

Go west, young man

Will back-to-back national champs St. Norbert's make the tourney?

In the West, two-time defending national champion St. Norbert sits in second place in the NCHA and has a regional ranking of 2nd (west). Conference leader Wisconsin-Eau Clair is 1st (west). The two meet Saturday for the conference championship. Five of the West’s 8 regionally ranked teams play in the NCHA. Will only one get in?

One western conference is relatively weak, MIAC leader St. John’s of Minnesota is not ranked, and Gustavus Alophus is sitting at 7th. Only one will get in as AQ.

In the MCHA, Adrian is the conference leader and ranked 3rd in the West Region, but needs two more wins in its conference tournament this weekend to secure an AQ. If Adrian fails to win its conference it too would have a solid claim for a Pool-C bid. The Bulldogs have a (21-1-3) record and a win a against a D-1 opponent (Alabama-Huntsville).

With Utica and Hobart ranked consistently high all season, and until this week ranked 1st and 3rd in the Regional Rankings, most observers have been figuring both teams are a lock for Pool-C bids, taking two of the available 3 spots. However, complicating the picture further, last weekend neither won their ECAC-West semifinal. Neumann defeated Hobart,2-0, while Manhattanville bested Utica,2-1, in OT. Neumann and Manhattanville face off for the ECAC-West crown March 2nd.

Utica and Hobart have dropped to 2nd and 6th respectively. Neither has more games to play, while highly ranked NESCAC teams and ECAC-East teams can still pick up another win against a ranked team even if they don’t win their conference tournament.

The same observers who have been calling Hobart and Utica locks also believe that while the ECAC-West doesn't have an AQ, it has de facto lock for at least one Pool-C bid. But will the NCAA award three Pool-C bids to one conference? In 2008 and again in 2009 the NCAA picked three teams from ECAC-West.

In 2009, Neumann went on to win it all. Again in 2011 two teams from the ECAC-West, Neumann and conference Champion Elmira, both made the field. Neumann was eliminated by Bowdoin,2-1, in a rock ‘em, sock ‘em affair in Brunswick.

This season both Neumann and Manhattanville have legitimate arguments; both are ranked nationally, both are in the Regional rankings and one of them will be conference champion. And one of them will also beat another ranked team this year.

How did the ECAC-West do against NESCAC this year? Hobart thumped Hamilton 8-1. Utica beat Amherst 4-3. Manhattanville pounded Tufts, beat CC, and lost to Trinity. Only Neumann played no one in NESCAC.

In the end...
So with a realistic possibility that three teams from the ECAC-West, the conference champ and Utica & Hobart, deserve the three Pool-C bids and solid arguments for one team each from the SUNYAC and NCHA, where does that leave the NESCAC runner-up? Probably watching the games from their New England dorms.

Middlebury. The Panthers will not get a Pool-C bid. They must win the NESCAC to keep playing. Their overall record (12-10-2) includes too many losses, they have remained outside the USCHO polls since December and have only cracked the NCAA Regional Rankings at number 15 last week and 16 this week. While they can claim to have the best out-of-conference schedule of any team in the east, they are 3-9-2 against ranked teams this year.

Ephs need to win the 'CAC crown to be dancing on Sunday

Williams. The Ephs have a better argument as the NCAA regional rankings place them 8th, their second  seed in the NESCAC tourney is good and they have been consistently ranked all season.  However, their record against ranked teams is not outstanding. The Ephs are just 3-4-1 against NESCAC teams that are, or have been, ranked. When you include a loss to Plattsburgh and a tie with Babson, the Purple Cow’s record against regionally ranked teams diminishes even further to 3-5-2; add a loss to the West's Gustavus Adolphus and their record against ranked teams is just at 3-6-2. Moreover they’d come up short in one more category: head-to-head matchups. Williams would loss out to Plattsburgh (who beat them) and Babson (who the Ephs tied but who has a higher regional rank and record against ranked opponents) Williams must win the NESCAC tournament to gain entry to the NCAA, being runner-up will not suffice.

Trinity.  At 6-2-1 the Bantams have the best record in the NESCAC against ranked opponents. This includes their 5-2-1 record against ranked 'CAC opponents Amherst, Bowdoin, Middlebury and Williams and one win against Manhattanville. But the Bantams overall record of 15-6-3 is less persuasive and weird losses to Becker and Nichols can’t help. Trinity has a theoretical claim should they be the runner up in the NESCAC tournament, but given the strengths in other conferences, the fact that they are ranked just 9^th regionally by the NCAA, and still haven’t made the cut for the USCHO poll, they too must win the NESCAC tournament in order to qualify for the NCAA.

Bowdoin. Like Trinity, Bowdoin has a 5-2-1 marked against ranked NESCAC teams. In fact, that’s their record against all ranked teams as they played no ranked opposition outside the conference. Unlike the Bantams, however, Bowdoin is ranked 4th in the NCAA regional rankings (5th in the USCHO national poll which had the Polar Bears as high as 2nd earlier in the season). Also, unlike the Bantams, they have no quirky out of conference losses to drag down their regional won-loss percentage.

The Polar Bears have the second best winning percentage (tied with Oswego and behind Norwich) in the east.

On most strength of schedule measures Bowdoin comes out middling at best.

Head to head measurements for Bowdoin are completely irrelevant. They’ve played no out of conference games against teams still in contention for any NCAA bid.

In games against common opponents the Polar Bears can be measured against 9 teams possibly in the hunt for a Pool-C bid.  The Polar Bears stack up well and can add to their stats by beating Middlebury Saturday.

·                     Plattsburgh 2-1 v Midd & Williams; Bowdoin (3-0-1)

·                     Norwich 8-0 v USM, UNE, Middlebury, Conn Coll; Bowdoin ( 5-0-1)

·                     Babson 5-0-1 v. USM, UNE, Midd & Williams; Bowdoin (7-0-1)

·                     UMass-Boston 5-1 v UNE & USM; Bowdoin (4-0-0)

·                     Hobart 2-0 v Salve Regina & Hamilton; Bowdoin (4-0-0)

·                     Utica 2-0 v Amherst & Salve; Bowdoin (2-1-0)

·                     Manhattanville 1-1 v Conn Coll & Trinity; Bowdoin (3-1-0)

·                     Gustavus Adolphus 1-0 v Williams; Bowdoin (2-0-0)

·                     Oswego 1-0 v Hamilton; Bowdoin (3-0-0)

Bowdoin has a slim chance for a Pool-C bid, but several things have to happen. In the ECAC-East, Norwich must win its conference and gain the AQ to keep the Cadets out of Pool-C. Bowdoin would have an edge over either UMass-Boston or Babson.

In addition Oswego must win the SUNYAC championship as Bowdoin maintains an edge over Plattsburgh, albeit razor thin. Bowdoin would prefer Plattsburgh to swim in Pool-C.

Out west, Adrian must win its conference championship to keep it out of Pool-C.

ECAC-NE, only conference Champion will advance.

MASCAC, only conference Champion will advance.

Wildcards. The Smoke filled room and other sources of aggravation. 
On the fan forums at USCHO.com and D3Hockey.com you can read all kinds of conspiracy theories about who doesn't make the play-offs and why. Upstate New York is particularly fertile ground for accusations of corrupt back-room dealing. At the same time, posters loyal to the SUNYAC and ECAC-West also produce some of the best analysis.

Lake Champlain: Beautiful, Majestic and the geographic divide for  D-3 Hockey biases 

There also exists a sub-genre claiming anti-western bias. Then there are the state-to-state biases with Vermont getting picked on. My favorite, though, is the especially virulent anti-NESCAC bias, with its practitioners tending to focus their loathing on Middlebury specifically, rather than the conference as a whole. It may have something to do with those eight National Championships on the eastern side of Lake Champlain.

Most of the smoke filled room talk is entertaining and just a way of venting about why your team didn't get picked and someone else did. But as the bard wrote, much truth is said in jest. So here, in no particular order, are some reasons why a team might get a leg up on a Pool-C bid.

From the West: NCHA. St. Norbert because they’re the two-time defending champion.

From the East: SUNYAC. Either Plattsburgh or Oswego, because they’re both really good and seem to always have been. One of them has to lose the SUNYAC crown and that’s a shame, but it won’t be an upset. So the other team just deserves a bid. Unfortunately for Plattsburgh, their regional ranking is mysteriously much below Oswego’s spot.

NESCAC. Bowdoin because they’re the host for 2014 and because they have a great rink on campus containing a cathedral like exposition of the history of the program right down to its first Zamboni and a display containing not only the machine itself, but also letters from Frank Zamboni himself.

ECAC-East. Norwich because, like Plattsburgh and Oswego, they’re always really good. If they don’t win the ECAC-E title it will be an upset.

ECAC-West. Hobart because they've seen the light and will field a women’s team for William-Smith College next year.

ECAC-Northeast or the MASCAC. All the fans bemoaning the unfairness of their team being shut out by the corrupt smoke-filled room deals should take a good look at the AQ process. Sixteen teams make the regional rankings from the east. None from the ECAC-NE, and just Plymouth State from the MASCAC who sneaks in at 15^th.

So while you’re watching your Polar Bears, Bantams, Panthers or Ephs this weekend, keep your ear to the transistor and you Twitter feed focused on @nescachockey. Root for the Cadets of Norwich, the Lakers of Oswego and Adrian, too. Let's keep those big fish out of Pool-C. Who knows, maybe there will be two NESCAC Teams playing in the NCAAs. If not, we still have four of the top six spots on U.S. News and Word Report's National Liberal Arts College Rankings. 

Benet Pols is a graduate of Middlebury College in Vermont but grew up watching Bowdoin Polar Bear men's hockey. He was in Dayton Arena in 1971 when Dick Donovan's overtime goal against the University of Vermont gave Bowdoin its first championship, for what was then the ECAC Div. II. He has not been able to shake the feeling.