Out-of-conference season wrap. Nescac teams go 29-20-8 before hitting the homestretch of NESCAC play.

By Benet Pols

With Bowdoin’s 4-1 win over USM on January 28^th NESCAC’s regular season out-of-conference play has come to an end for the 2013-14 season.  The next time a NESCAC team will see an OOC opponent will be in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Bowdoin and Colby, entering a bye-week, have just six conference games remaining to make their argument to host the NESCAC tournament; the rest of the conference play eight more games each.

With NESCAC’s over-all-record in OOC play a healthy 29-20-8 it’s time to re-examine our mid-season prognosis, look at how the individual teams fared, give some more thought to what the OOC results might mean for post-season play, and to eat a little crow.

In looking at OOC schedules I rated the individual schedules for difficulty. Not surprisingly the five most difficult OOC schedules, Hamilton, Williams, Midd, Amherst & CC, netted the NESCAC a record of 9-14-4, while the five easiest schedules, Bowdoin, Colby, Wesleyan, Trinity & Tufts, yielded a robust 20-6-4. Bowdoin, Trinity, & Wesleyan went a collective 15-1-2.

Williams. 1^st in NESCAC (tie), 13-3-2 overall, 9-1-2 NESCAC,

3-2 OOC (4-2 non-conference including win over Hamilton at Buck Classic)

The Ephs, first in the NESCAC at 9-1-2, played one of the harder OOC schedules this year. Due to the vagaries of holiday tournament scheduling the Ephs ended up playing a non-conference game against fellow NESCAC member Hamilton in the Buck Classic.

Here’s my early assessment of Williams OOC schedule.

"The Ephs have nearly as strong a schedule (as Middlebury & Hamilton) playing four tough games in six OOC contests. Only Johnson & Wales of the ECAC-NE should be considered weak. Manhattanville cracked the NCAA regional rankings late last season."

Here’s how the Ephs’ OOC schedule played out:

12/1/13            Babson, 3-2
1/3/14              Hobart,  2-3 OT (Buck Holiday Classic)
1/4/14              Hamilton, 4-3 OT (Buck)
1/11/14            Johnson and Wales, 2-3 OT
1/17/14            Manhattanville, 4-1
1/18/14            Plattsburgh, 5-1

I underestimated Johnson and Wales; it’s possible Williams did too. The Wildcats, from Providence Rhode Island, are 14-4 overall; at 4-3 in the ECAC-NE they sit 3rd in the conference. But, in addition to beating Williams, the Wildcats took a pair of 2-1 wins against Buffalo State, currently 3rd place in the mighty SUNYAC. Although they’ve yet to crack the top fifteen of either poll the Wildcats have drawn a few votes in the most recent polls over at USCHO and D3Hockey.

On the other hand, the surprising Johnson and Wales just made Williams already difficult schedule even harder. With the exception of Hamilton, every team the Ephs played has a winning record; their opponents combined winning percentage is .651. Four games were decided by just a goal with three of them going to overtime.

With Williams at 9-1-2 and Bowdoin at 6-5-1 in NESCAC, it's unlikely the Polar Bear
faithful at The Sid will see purple again this season. Bowdoin would need a lot of help to
host the NESCAC tournament. Bowdoin's Coach Terry Meagher told The Orient: "They're
not in first place by accident. Arguably they have the best goaltender in the east."

Trinity. 2nd in NESCAC (tie), 14-4 overall, 9-3 NESCAC,

OOC 5-1

How about Trinity? The Bantams, tied for second in NESCAC 9-3 record, ended their out-of-conference play at 5-1.

11/30/13          Salve Regina, 6-3
12/1/13            Wentworth, 4-3
12/5/13            Stonehill, 0-2
12/7/12            Manhattanville, 6-3
1/3/14              Becker, 5-4
1/4/14              WNEC, 10-1

But here’s what I said about Trinity’s OOC schedule earlier this year: “Wesleyan and Trinity bring in the least competitive OOC schedules. Each team plays just one OOC game against a historically strong team. . . .Trinity’s toughest opponent has been Manhattanville whom they beat 6-3, but the Bantams suffered a weird loss to Stonehill. With wins against Salve Regina and Wentworth, they’ll close out with Becker and Western New England College.”

Not a ringing endorsement.

If the NESCAC season ended now with either Williams or Trinty winning the conference tournament and its automatic trip to the NCAA tournament, how would the other team fare as runner-up looking for an at-large, or “Pool-C” tournament bid? Would the Bantams’ dominance of a weak OOC schedule help their NCAA chances? What about Williams decent, but not dominant performance against much tougher competition?

The answer depends on which of the so-called primary criteria for NCAA selection you’re talking about.  The gurus tell us that it's impossible to tell which, if any, of the criteria listed are most important. 

But here are the six primary criteria:

1) Won-lost percentage against DIII opponents. In past years this criterion has been win-loss percentage against regional opponents.

2) DIII head-to-head competition. The DIII label is surplusage.

3) Results versus common DIII opponents.

4) Results versus ranked DIII teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference postseason contests are included.

5) Division III strength of schedule. In the past this has been calculated by using 2/3 Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) and 1/3 Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP)

6) Should a committee find that evaluation of a team’s won-lost percentage during the last 25 percent of the season is applicable (i.e., end-of-season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval from the Championships Committee.

Stonehill is a DII school so the Bantam’s loss won’t even be considered in analyzing the primary criteria (play against DII schools does come back into play if the committee looks to secondary criteria but lets try and keep it simple here). For Trinity, their only DIII OOC opponent with a record above .500 is Manhattanville and the Valiants just barely make it. As a group Trinity’s opponents' combined winning percentage is .417. On the strength of schedule measure Trinity’s OOC schedule is a loser

But for a straight up 5-O against DIII OOC opponents? Hard to argue that’s not a boost in the “win-loss percentage against DIII opponents” category.

How does this stack up against Williams 4-2 record against decidedly tougher competition? In contrast with Trinity only one of the Ephs’s non-conference opponents is below .500 and that is fellow NESCAC member Hamilton at 4-10-3. The Ephs' opponents' combined winning percentage is .651. Clearly Williams gets the boost from the strength of schedule criterion, and 4-2 represents a decent win-loss percentage.

Because the Ephs will probably get the nod in the final category, “results against ranked teams,” I’m giving the nod to Williams on the chance for an at-large bid if they’re conference runner-up.

Play against ranked teams is a concept that won’t become clear until that last few weeks of the season. It includes consideration of play against teams within your conference and those from outside the conference. Because none of Trinity’s OOC opponents are likely to be ranked this year, Williams gets the nod as right now; the Ephs hold two wins against teams that are likely to be ranked late in the season: Babson and Plattsburgh.

As the NESCAC season winds down and the conference playoff picture becomes more clear we'll take a detailed look at the prospects for two NESCAC teams to make the NCAA tournament. For a taste of how that question will unfold this year you can review last year's prediction that no matter how good the runner-up was only the NESCAC conference champion would qualify for NCAA play. But if you read it note that the primary criteria have changed a bit since last season.

Amherst. 2nd in NESCAC (tied with Trinity but holding the tie breaker; the Jeffs swept the season series against Trinity, 11-6-1 overall, 9-3 NESCAC,

OOC 2-3-1

At second place in NESCAC the Lord Jeffs are 9-3 in the conference and 11-6-1 overall. Their 2-3-1 OOC schedule, which I concluded was a clear fourth in the NESCAC, went like this:

11/26/13          St. Mikes, 4-0
11/30/13          Babson, 0-2
1/3/14              Plymouth St., 4-3
1/4/14              Norwich, 1-5
1/24/14            Concordia (Wis), 4-4
1/25/14            Lake Forest, 1-3

Nothing in this schedule will help the Jeffs with an NCAA bid. First they have a losing record. Second, while their two western opponents, Lake Forest (10-8-1) and Concordia (8-7-4) are above .500 neither is lighting up the NCHA. Plymouth State is not having a good season and St. Mike’s, with just 3 wins, is last in the ECAC-E.

On the bright side for the Jeffs Babson at 16-3 and Norwich (14-3-2) are doing great, and both will likely be considered ranked during the crucial final weeks of the season. But……both beat Amherst.

Bowdoin.  4^th NESCAC (tie), 11-5-2 overall, 6-5-1 NESCAC,

OOC, 5-0-1.

Colby.  4^th NESCAC (tie), 9-6-2 overall, 6-5-1 NESCAC

OOC, 3-1-2

Bowdoin and Colby, ranked 4^th and 5^th in NESCAC with identical 6-5-1 records had very similar OOC schedules. The Polar bears, the last NESCAC team to wrap-up OOC play finished 5-0-1 with a winning percentage of .916:

11/26/13            UNE,  9-3
11/30/13            Suffolk, 5-0
12/1/13              UMD, 5-1
12/10/13            USM, 3-3
1/7/14                UNE, 4-3
1/28/14              USM, 4-1

Meanwhile, the Mules at 3-1-2, completed this schedule:

11/19/13         USM, 5-2
11/30/13         UMD, 4-4
12/1/13           Suffolk, 6-3
1/2/14             Wentworth 5-3
1/3/14             Babson 2-3
1/7/14             USM 3-3

Both teams from Maine will benefit with respect to win-loss percentage against DIII opponents but it’s hard to argue any benefits on the strength of schedule front. Bowdoin’s opponents have a meager .323 winning percentage, while Colby’s, boosted substantially by Babson’s 16 wins, still tops out at just .425.

I had Colby and Bowdoin’s OOC schedules ranked 6^th and 7^th respectively in NESCAC and noted that the only thing that really distinguished them from those of with even weaker OOC schedules was the fact that at least some of their weaker opponents played in a stronger conference, the ECAC-E.

 

Senior Ben Chwick snipes against UMass Dartmouth in early season out of conference play. Colby came away with
a 4-4 tie. Chwick leads the team in scoring with 12 goals and 10 assists in 18 games.

I don’t have to eat crow on this as USM, sitting 9^th of ten in ECAC-E managed ties with Bowdoin and Colby at home in Gorham while succumbing in Brunswick and Waterville. Meanwhile UNE is having their best season in five years of varsity hockey and took out powerful Babson earlier this year.

But neither of these facts means anything in terms of numbers. UNE’s winning percentage of .425 against the ECAC-E counts just about the same as Curry’s .444 in ECAC-NE. By the same token, Colby’s 3-2 loss to Babson showed their season turn around is for real; unfortunately for the Mules it is still a loss and won’t help with an NCAA selection.

Middlebury. 4^th NESCAC, 8-8-2 overall, 6-5-1 NESCAC,

OOC 2-3-1

Currently 4^th in NESCAC with a 6-5-1 record (8-8-2) overall, the Panthers played what was arguably the toughest OOC schedule. Earlier I wrote this:

“It’s tough not to credit Middlebury with the toughest OOC schedule when you realize they’ll play Norwich and Plattsburgh twice each this year. The Panthers surprised the then 2nd ranked Cadets by advancing to the final of the Primelink Tournament with their shoot-out victory. The shoot-out gave the Panthers a crack at Plattsburgh the following night. The Cards, now ranked 1^st by USCHO were then sitting in 3rd place, put away Middlebury with a big first period.
In mid-January the Panthers will see both teams again as part of their Lake Champlain hell weekend. The Panthers host number 1 Plattsburgh on the 17^th and travel to number 5 Norwich the following night.”

It was a hell weekend indeed as the Panthers lost to Plattsburgh 4-2 and were handily beaten by a Norwich team that skated to a 5-0 lead after only allowing the Panthers one shot on goal during the first period. Middlebury got two late goals for respectability, but it was all Cadets. This is how Midd's OOC schedule went:

11/29/13        Norwich, 1-1
11/30/13        Plattsburgh, 1-3
1/3/14            St. Mikes 6-2
1/4/14            Neumann 3-1
1/17/14          Plattsburgh 2-4
1/18/14          Norwich 2-5

For the Panthers their 2-3-1 OOC record won’t help them secure an NCAA spot. Again, their opponents have strong winning percentages: Plattsburgh’s is .842, Norwich .789, and Neumann .556, but the Panthers are just 1-3-1 against these teams. The moral victory shootout win against Norwich at the Primelink goes in the books as a tie.

A bigger problem for Midd is its NESCAC record and the rest of their schedule. The Panthers still face a home and home series with first place Williams, and a road game with Trinity. Last the Panthers face a final weekend game with Amherst.

You have to wonder about the decision to exile goaltender Mike Peters after pulling him during the first period against Plattsburgh at the Primelink (three goals on eight shots). Peters had been 3-0-2 until that point in the season after coming on late last season to lend some stability to a four-goaltender carousel.

The goaltending carousel at Middlebury enters its second year. Nick BonDurant
was relieved after 1:42 at Bowdoin on Jan 24th. Drew Michals, pictured, finished the
 5-4 OT loss. Michael Peters, with a season record of 4-1-2 played at Colby the
following day.

This season while Peters sat three other goalies went 3-6 for the Panthers. Peters returned to the crease on January 25^th against a Colby team that had just knocked off Williams and allowed just two goals in getting the win. His season record is now at 4-1-2. Injury is not a likely explanation as Peters dressed for seven of the nine games Midd played during his walk through goalie purgatory.

Connecticut College. 7^th NESCAC, 5-12-1 overall, 4-8 NESCAC

OOC, 1-4-1

The Camels also took on the Utica Pioneers, falling 5-1. Like Hamilton, the Camels also took down hapless Canton but ended their OOC season 1-4-1. Overall CC's opponents’ winning percentage is strong with Manhattanville and Salem State over .500, Utica at .667 and Oswego at .722, but for now this is really about building a solid OOC schedule for the future. It’s a schedule I called the 5^th hardest in NESCAC. Like Hamilton, the Camels need to worry about the final couple playoff spots in the NESCAC.

11/30/13          Utica, 1-5

12/1/13            Salem St, 0-1

12/3/13            Manhattanville, 0-6

1/4/14              Canton 5-2

1/7/14              Oswego 0-5

1/11/14            Curry 4-4

This Keith Veronesi shot for the game winning goal in overtime at Bowdoin

on December 6th had to be one of the few early highlights for CC this season.

Recently the Camels have taken important games from Hamilton, Wesleyan, 

and Middlebury to put themselves back in playoff contention. 3-3 over the

last three weeks their losses include an OT loss to Trinity and 1-0 loss

to first place Williams.

Hamilton. 8^th NESCAC, 4-10-3 overall, 3-7-2 NESCAC

OOC  1-3-1 (1-4-1 including non-conference loss to Williams at the Buck Classic)

I gave Hamilton credit for the toughest OOC schedule noting:

“Good arguments can be made for Middlebury and Williams but because the Conts finished low last year the nod for courageous scheduling goes to Clinton.”

Unfortunately for the Conts they need to worry more about maintaining a playoff position within NESCAC than what their tough OOC schedule means. Hamilton finished their five game OOC slate 1-3-1 with the lone win against independent punching bag Canton and a tie with a frustrated Utica team. Aside from Canton, the “weakest” team in Hamilton’s OOC schedule is Utica with a .667 wining percentage.

12/1/13          Suny Canton, 3-0
1/3/14            Plattsburgh 2-5
1/4/14            Williams 3-4 OT
1/24/14          Suny Geneseo 1-5
1/25/14          Utica 4-4

Plagued by injuries and early graduations a promising start to Hamilton's
season has been stymied. They do lead the league in one thing though:
penalty minutes. The Conts average 16.2 minutes per game in the box; against
their NESCAC brethren they ratchet it up to 16.8. With just the 7th best penalty
kill in the conference avoiding the extra minutes would be prudent.
Here Jon Carkeek takes a 5 minute major, and picks up the added bonus
of a misconduct.

Wesleyan. 9^th NESCAC, 8-8-2 overall, 3-8-1 NESCAC

OOC 5-0-1

The Cardinals OOC schedule is where I made my biggest mistake. I undervalued New England College now at 14-6-1 overall, including a recent thiller over Norwich, and sitting 3^rd in the ECAC-E. Moreover, I didn’t look hard enough at Hobart’s 2-4-4 start which included six overtime games and some tough competition. Even Salve Regina, at 5-2 and leading the oft maligned ECAC-NE, has tangled with Trinity, Hobart, Utica, Neumann, Oswego, Castleton & Skidmore, all middle of the pack to top rated teams in the three most competitive eastern conferences. I should have ranked Wesleyan’s OOC schedule 6^th just behind Connecticut College. The Card's OOC record:

11/26/13          Stonehill, 5-3
11/30/13          Wentworth, 2-2
12/1/13            Salve Regina, 6-2
12/7/13            Hobart, 6-2
1/3/14              NEC 4-2
1/5/14              Canton 4-3

Tufts. 10^th NESCAC, 3-15 overall, 1-11 NESCAC

OOC, 2-4

The Jumbo moves slowly. Bringing up the rear is Tufts at 1-11 in NESCAC and 3-15 overall; even their fairly weak OOC schedule has not done much for their overall record. At 2-4 it’s possible that they should have added Canton too.

11/26/13            Becker, 4-6
11/30/13            Castleton St, 4-3
12/1/13              Manhattanville, 0-3
1/4/14                SNHU 4-5
1/5/14                Suffolk 4-1
1/8/14                Suffolk 3-4