Saturday, February 24, 2018

NESCAC Quarterfinals Preview

It's finally here, playoff time! All stats are in conference games. With help from LPfan2004 on The Trinity/Tufts preview.

#8 Tufts at #1 Trinity   1 PM  Video
Tufts (5-15-4; 4-11-3)
Offense - 1,83 G/GM (9th)
Defense -  2.78 G/GM (8th)
PIM - 8.2/GM (9h)
Power Play - 14% (6th)
Penalty Kill - 82.8% (6th)
Special Teams Net -  -6 (10th)


Trinity (17-5-2; 14-3-1 NESCAC)
Offense - 3.11 G/GM (2nd) 
Defense - 1.72 G/GM (1st) 
PIM - 12.4/GM (2nd)
Power Play - 10.9% (7th)
Penalty Kill - 88.8% (2nd)
Special Teams Net - 0 (5th) 



The Lowdown: You Again...
The Trinity Bantams and Tufts Jumbos will meet at 1:00 PM on Saturday, February 23. This will be the fourth year in a row that the two teams will face off in the playoffs. Trinity beat Tufts the past in two years, in the semifinals and quarterfinals, respectively, after Tufts shocked Trinity in the 2015 quarterfinals. Trinity hopes to continue their recent streak while Tufts hopes to repeat 2015's success.

Trinity beat Tufts both times in the regular season in the current campaign. In their first game of the season they won 5-1 at home, and on January 19th they cruised by the Jumbos 4-1. Alex Morin will likely start for Trinity, while Nik Nugnes should get the nod for the Jumbos. Both teams will look for their top goalscorers to get on the board, for Trinity it will be Anthony Sabinski and Barclay Gammill, for Tufts it will be Tyler Scroggins and Brian Brown. (Note: special shout out to assist master Liam Feeney (33 assist in 55 career games so far) from Trinity on being named a Joe Cancannon semifinalist this week).

The game should be a relatively achievable victory for Trinity, who will host the NESCAC semifinals and finals if they win. However, the Bantams look potentially vulnerable, as they have lost two of their last four games. Tufts could pull something out of the hat as anything is possible in the `Cac.

Thanks, LPfan2004. You're right, anything is possible in the 'CAC and the Jumbos need to look no further than 2015 when they rode a hot goalie, Mason Pulde, to an upset in Hartford. Nugnes fought valiantly last year in the quarters but the Bantams 51 shots were just too much for the Bos.

The Jumbos are young (21 frosh and sophomores on the roster) and young teams can be prone to the type of mistakes that a well-coached, talented team like Trinity can take advantage of. In addition to limiting their own mistakes, Tufts will need to capitalize on Trinity mistakes, which may take the form of power plays as the Bantams are the second most penalized team in the 'CAC, though that is tempered by a strong penalty kill.

The Jumbos have next to no shot to outshoot or outpace a Trinity team that has had more shots than their opponent in all but one game this season. Wesleyan provided the blueprint for the win last weekend, with a solid goaltending performance and two opportunistic goals (one capitalizing on a poor Trinity line change, and another throwing it off a defender). The Cardinals also committed to plugging lanes and blocking shots, something the Bos will have to do to try and keep the SOG margin close.

Playing at home means the Bantams get to stay in their own beds, sure, but perhaps more important it means they won't have to take a bus. 





#4 Wesleyan at #5 Hamilton 4PM  Video

Wesleyan 12-7-5; 8-6-4 NESCAC)
Offense - 2.78 G/Gm (4th)
Defense - 2.28 G/Gm (3rd)
PIM- 7.3/GM (10th)
Power Play - 8/76 10.5 % (8th) 
Penalty Kill - 47/57 82.5% (7th)
Special Teams Net -  0 (5th)

Hamilton (15-6-3; 9-6-3)
Offense - 2.44 G/GM (7th)
Defense - 2,.00 G/GM (1st)
PIM - 7.8 GM (8th)
Power Play - 7/81 8.6(10th)
Penalty Kill -  46/50 92%  (1st)

Special Teams Net - +1 (3rd)



Hamilton Preview  

The Lowdown: Revenge 
Hamilton and Wesleyan faced one another just once in the first 17 years of conference playoffs (an eight seed Cardinals upsetting top seed Hamilton in 2011) and now they will play a playoff tilt for the second straight season.

Last season, seventh seed Wesleyan looked poised to make their first trip to the conference finals with a 3-1 lead over top seed Hamilton after two periods before the Continentals fought back in a wild third period to take down the young Cards 5-4. It was one of only two games last season in which Hamilton netminder Evan Buitenhuis gave up more than three goals (the other being the NCAA Quarterfinals against eventual national champion Norwich). Buitenhuis would next allow four goals in a game against a NESCAC opponent this season, on December 3rd, again at Sage Rink and again against the Cardinals. The Cardinals new goalie for this season, Hobart transfer Tim Sestak, posted 45 saves in that 5-3 victory.

The Continentals would return the favor in January with a 5-2 victory of their own in Middletown, CT in a game without  either their top scorer, Jason Brochu, or Buitenhuis. One player who did play for the Conts in that game was sophomore Nick Ursitti. The Mississauga, Ontario native (do kids in Canada learn to spell it like kids in the US learn Mississippi? But I digress) only had an assist in that contest. We say only, because Ursitti has owned the Cards with nine points (4-5-9) in four career games, including two in last season's NESCAC semis.

Boots didn't play in that game but he will play on Saturday and he will enter the game with a three game shutout streak. The senior has stopped 94 of the 96 shots he has faced since returning two weeks ago from a six game absence due to injury. He'll face a goalie in Sestak who has shown his worth in his first season in the NESCAC, posting a .932 save % as a workhorse in net for the Cardinals (Sestak has played all but 119 minutes this season).

Besides goaltending, both teams feature an upperclassmen who has found the scoring bug later in their college days. For Wesleyan,  senior Dylan Holze, playing alongside sophomores Dylan Fox and Tyler Watt, has scored 16 goals, or three more than his first three seasons combined.  Hamilton junior Jason Brochu leads the Continentals with 15 goals, nearly twice the eight goal output he had in the first half of his collegiate career. Holze was selected as a Joe Concannon Award semifinalist this week while Brochu was not as the award goes to an American born player playing D-III college hockey in New England (Hamilton is in NY and Brochu is Canadian, as is Buitenhuis).

Special teams are always a potential decider in a playoff game, though the man advantage is not a strength for either squad. Both are also two of the least penalized teams in the conference, so make of that what you will.  This has been a welcome development especially for the Cardinals, who are averaging over four penalty minutes less per game than they were last season.

Two players that have not put up the stats that they did last season, but may make a huge mark on this game are the skilled blueliners, Chad Malinowski for Wesleyan and Bennett Morrison for Hamilton.

Anyway, here's Hamilton's most recent member of the 100 point club, Robbie Murden ('17) calling us out for some gross Canadian ignorance.




#7Williams at #2 Conn College   4:30 PM   Video



Williams (13-10-1; 9-8-1 NESCAC)
Offense - 2.67 G/GM (6th)
Defense - 2.50 G/GM (7th)
PIM - 10.1/GM (4th)
Power Play - 21.9% (2nd)
Penalty Kill - 80.3% (9th)
Special Teams Net - +1 (3rd)


Conn College (10-10-4; 9-5-4 NESCAC)
Offense - 2.89 G/GM (3rd)
Defense - 2.33 G/GM (5th)
PIM - 10.3/GM (3rd)
Power Play - 16.1% (5th) 
Penalty Kill - 81.9 % (8th)
Special Teams Net - -5 (6th)

Williams Preview  Conn College

The Lowdown: Role Reversal
Conn College enters the playoffs as their highest seed ever, while Williams finishes as low as seventh for the first time since 2008.  The two have met only once in the playoffs in the Camels only appearance in the semis back in 2015. The Ephs took the contest 4-2 before losing in the finals to rival Amherst. The Ephs are adept at making it to said semifinals, going six of the last eight years, but have yet to seal the deal on a NESCAC title.

The Camels have not only not gone to any other semis, they had barely won NESCAC games in the subsequent seasons since that loss headed into 2017-18. The Camels, who only have three current players that suited up for that 2015 game (Mason Evans, Matt Gaetz and backup goalie Tim Cooney) , went 2-28-6 in conference over the course of the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons.

A youth movement has lifted the Camels on both ends of the ice this season. Sophomore Connor Rodericks has been called upon to right the ship in net to the tune of  a solid 1.96 GAA in conference games and a Save Percentage (.942), second in conference to  only Buitenhuis. On the other end of the ice, the freshman duo of Ryan Petti and Paul Cappozi, combined with the long-haired, sophomore Quebecois assassin Jacob Moreau have led Conn College to over 1 goal a game more on average in conference than they had last season (1.78). Moreau (10-9-19) and Petti (6-13-19) are also tied for the lead league in conference points.

While the Camels have no contributors from the 2015 team left on the roster, the Ephs have three seniors that had points in that 2015 semis game as rookies (Colby Cretella, David Italiano, and CJ Shuggart). Italiano has particularly been a Camel killer with 17 points (6-11-17) in nine career games against the team from New London, CT, including two goals in each of the games this season.  The game at Conn College in December saw the Ephs slaughter the Camels 7-2 (though Roddericks wasn't in net), while Conn College rallied for a 3-2 victory in Williamstown, one of only two games this season the Ephs lost when outshooting their opponent.

In general there is less of a disparity between a 2 and 7 seed than you would expect, starting with a separation of only three points in the standings when it would usually be a double digit disparity in an average year. The Ephs are also a streaky team, with all ten of their losses on the season coming in separate four and six game losing streaks.

In other words, this should be a tight one. It will be interesting to see whom interim coach Mike Monti puts between the pipes for Williams. Formerly seldom used senior Stephen Morrisey has fought into a straight rotation with junior Mike Pinios over the past year.  Morrisey has the better stats this season but Pinios also has the experience with three NESCAC playoff games under his belt.

It will also be interesting to see/hear the atmosphere. The Camels have a tiny rink and in their only other hosted NESCAC playoff game, a 2015 Quarterfinal OT win over Hamilton, the fans created an appropriate playoff hockey milieu.

Maybe they can make a poster with the USCHO projected standings for this season for motivation. To be fair to Tim Costello, no one had the Camels finishing this high, not even history, as previously mentioned this is the highest the Camels have ever finished in the league standings.

 
#6 Colby at #3 Amherst    6 PM   Video
Colby (12-10-2; 9-7-2 NESCAC)
Offense - 3.17 G/GM (1st)
Defense - 2.39 G/GM (6th)
PIM - 7.8/GM (8th)
Power Play - 18.1 % (4th) 
Penalty Kill - 87.0% (4th)
Special Teams Net - +6 (2nd)



 Amherst (11-8-5; 8-5-5 NESCAC) 
Offense - 2.72 G/GM (5th)
Defense - 2.28 G/GM (3rd)
PIM - 9.6/GM (5th)
Power Play - 23.9% (1st)
Penalty Kill- 88.3% (3rd)
Special Teams Net - +10 (1st)
Amherst Preview   

 The Lowdown: A special matchup
Unlike the other three quarterfinals, this one doesn't have any recent historical precedent with the teams last having met in the playoffs with the seeds reversed in the 2003 semis (A J Lo song Featuring LL Cool J was topping the charts at the time) . The Mammoths will hope the score is reversed in addition to the seeding as then third seed Colby scored the largest victory by goal differential in NESCAC playoff history with an 11-0 schelacking of the then Lord Jeffs.

In more recent history Amherst has had much more success than Colby in the playoffs. Before losing in last seasons's quarters to Williams, Jack Arena's squad went to three straight NESCAC finals from 2014-16. Colby hasn't been out of the quarters since 2011 and is looking for their first playoff victory under Blaise MacDonald. They scored their first home playoff game last season since Macdonald took over in 2012 but lost to seventh seed Wesleyan.

In the more immediate past, Colby and Amherst split the season series with convincing wins at the respective home rinks, 4-1 for the Mules at Alfond and 5-1 for Amherst at Orr. The Mammoths outshot the Mules by +10 in both contests but California native and recent Joe Concannon Award seminfinalist Sean Lawrence  made 40 shots in the affair. Lawrence has not always been consistent (he has four games with 4+ goals allowed this season) but the Quinnipiac transfer has shown the ability to take over a game - 46 save shutout vs Trinity and the Amherst win as prime examples - a huge asset in the playoffs. The Mules may need their senior netminder to take over as the Mammoths are 7-1-3 at Orr Rink this season. Amherst netminder Connor Girard has similar numbers (.924 save % to Lawrence's .931 in conference) and is certainly capable in net as well, earning the team MVP award last season.

Up front, the Mules boast the best scoring team by output in the conference, including four players with 20 points on the season (three upperclassman in Nick O'Connor, Cam Macdonald and Phil Klitirnos and sophomore Kienan Scott). The Mammoths have a more subdued but still solid attack paced by senior Thomas Lindstrom and sophomore Pat Daly. Of note, former NESCAC Rookie of the Year David White, who had 20 goals as a frosh is down to one tally this season, though he still has handed out 11 helpers.

The matchup also features the two best special teams squads in the NESCAC based on special teams net. Amherst is particularly notable, with a +10 on special teams but only a +8 on the season in conference, meaning the Mammoths are -2 even strength.


 The dominos have fallen on the regular season and the playoffs are a new season, so time for some new music! 
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