Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Playoff scearios headed into the final weekend

Well shoot, you got us. We have been MIA on the blog this season (though our social media #presence has been there). But you are forgiving people, right? So in an effort at a small bit of penance, let's break down the playoff scenarios headed into the final regular season weekend.


Wesleyan 
Highest possible seed: 1

Lowest possible seed: 2

The Cardinals enter the final weekend with the best season in program history already secured. Wesleyan had never finished higher than fourth in the final regular season standings and had never won more than 14 games in an entire season. Before yesterday's loss to Colby they hadn't lost a game in conference in the 2017-18 campaign. The loss leaves Middlebury's 2001-02 squad as the only NESCAC team to go undefeated in a regular season and means that no team has gone undefeated since the ECAC-East/NESCAC interlock ended in 2011. In a bit of a where are they now/what a NESCAC education can do for you, the captain of that Panther posse, Ryan Constantine, is an MD/PhD currently in a vitreoretinal surgery  fellowship out in Reno, NV.

The scenario is pretty simple for the Cardinals headed into the rivalry home-and-home with Trinity. The Bantams need to sweep the Cardinals or else Wesleyan will secure their first ever #1 spot in the NESCAC tournament. Even if the Bantams win both games, the Cards will be the #2 seed.


Trinity
Highest possible seed - 1
Lowest possible seed -  4

Based on the way the teams play, some combination of Williams, Amherst and and Hamilton could end up tied in the standings with Trinity, but not all three, so the Bantams will definitely be hosting a quarterfinal for the seventh straight season, the longest streak in the NESCAC. The Bantams, however, likely have their sites set on the top seed for the fourth time in the last six seasons. That will take a weekend sweep of travel partner Wesleyan, a team they have dominated in recent memory.

Williams
Highest possible seed - 2 
Lowest possible seed -  5

The Ephs enter the final weekend in third place with dates against the two teams immediately below them in the Amherst and Hamilton. This means they can take care of business and lock up the three, and possibly two depending on Trinity, or they could fall to a second straight road quarterfinal game if Amherst and Hamilton both have successful weekends.

Hamilton 
Highest Possible seed - 2
Lowest Possible seed - 5

The Continentals look to host their fourth straight quarterfinal game, not a bad feat for a program that hosted only two quarterfinal games in the first sixteen years of the NESCAC playoffs. Thanks to winning the season series over Amherst for the first time ever (NESCAC teams started playing each other twice a season in 2011 with the end of the interlock) the Conts control their own destiny for hosting a playoff game. If they win both over Middlebury and Williams, they have an outside shot at the second spot with a Wesleyan sweep of Trinity, but they can also fall to fifth if they don't at least match Amherst's output for the weekend. 

Amherst 
Highest Possible seed - 2
Lowest Possible seed - 5

The last of the 2-5 range, Amherst gets a home playoff game with a weekend sweep. There's a variety of scenarios that land them at 2-5 but the only certain thing is they will be the fifth seed if they do not get at least one tie on the weekend in Western Massacchussets/Vermont.

Colby 
Highest possible seed - 6
Lowest possible seed - 7

Colby had a magical run to a NESCAC title on the road last season and the Mules will need to make a run away from the friendly confines of Mayflower Hill yet again if they want to defend their title.  Colby has a two point cushion on Middlebury, the only team that can catch them, with the tiebreakers depending on who has more conference wins at the end of the weekend as the two teams split the season series.

Middlebury 
Highest possible seed - 6
Lowest possible seed - 7

The Panthers are happy to be back in the playoffs after two straight years in the NESCAC cellar and 40 conference goals headed into the final weekend as opposed to 18 all of last season. 


Bowdoin 
Highest possible seed - 8
Lowest possible seed - 10

The Polar Bears control their own destiny for the final playoff spot with a one point cushion on Tufts (Friday's opponent) and a 2 point cushion on Conn College (Saturday's foe). The Polar Bears lost to Tufts earlier this season, so they no longer control their own destiny headed into the final day of play with a loss to the Jumbos on Friday. A win on Friday, however, coupled with a Conn College loss or tie at Colby locks up the eighth spot and makes the regular season finale a glorified scrimmage. 

Tufts 
Highest possible seed - 8
Lowest possible seed - 10

The Jumbos look to extend their program high streak of consecutive NESCAC playoff appearances to five (the only other streak was two seasons in 2008-09 and 09-10). Two wins this weekend is the only guarantee for the extension of the streak, with a loss on Friday to Bowdoin eliminating the Jumbos. If they tie on Friday, they'll need to defeat Colby and hope for a Conn College loss on Friday and a tie or Conn College win on Saturday against Bowdoin.

Conn College
Highest possible seed - 8
Lowest possible seed - 10

It's been a weird half a decade for the Camels. After their first NESCAC home playoff game and win in 2015, the Camels fell to the bottom of the league for two seasons before their best ever regular season finish last season to the bottom of the league again this season. The good news for the Camels, however, is that the sweep of Tufts last weekend kept them in playoff contention. They'll still need some help, but they are still alive, which is more than most tenth place teams can say headed into the final weekend .

And now...





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